Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Braves @ Bulldogs ALCN @ LT

ALCORN STATE

BRAVESALCN

0-7  |  Road

58
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 1:00 PM ET
Thomas Assembly Center
View Odds Details →

LOUISIANA TECH

BULLDOGSLT

3-2  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
BRAVES --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
122.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
LOUISIANA TECH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Louisiana Tech)
BravesALCN (-3.5) 0 BulldogsLT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

27.4%

Bulldogs Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LT -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LT)

ALCN By 1-7 points

16.9%

ALCN By 8-14 points

6.8%

LT By 1-7 points

26.8%

LT By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
58
ALCORN STATE
64
LOUISIANA TECH
Simulated Score
60
ALCORN STATE
78
LOUISIANA TECH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 122.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 ALCN @ LT 58 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +25.4% more
Louisiana Tech: 43.1 vs Alcorn State: 34.4
Blocks (L5) +8.5% more
Louisiana Tech: 4.9 vs Alcorn State: 4.5
Free Throw % (L5) +5.6%
Louisiana Tech: 67.9% vs Alcorn State: 62.4%
Turnovers (L5) +29.2% more
Alcorn State: 17.4 vs Louisiana Tech: 12.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ALCN Score 58.0 58
LT Score 64.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 22.8 / 35.5 38.0 / 29.0
Assists 10.3 / 9.5 16.0 / 5.0
Blocks 4.9 / 4.5 8.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 42.5 / 45.2 53.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 67.9 / 62.4 56.0 / 48.0
Rebounding 43.1 / 34.4 42.0 / 33.0
Steals 6.8 / 8.6 6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 17.4 8.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALCN
9-23-0 (28.1%)
Margin: -13.3 ATS +/-: -0.8
LT Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALCN
17-14-1 (54.8%)
Margin: -13.3 ATS +/-: -0.8
LT Advantage
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ALCN
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.5
LT
15-15-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LT
ALCN
LT
ALCN
ML
58% 19-14
66% 21-11
72% 23-9
75% 18-6
ATS
61% 20-13
68% 21-10-1
72% 23-9
75% 18-6
TTL
61% 20-13
47% 15-17
100% 32-0
100% 24-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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