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CHICAGO STATE

COUGARSCHST

0-7  |  Road

64
FINAL
Fri, Nov 28 • 3:00 PM ET
Beeghly Center
View Odds Details →

YOUNGSTOWN STATE

PENGUINSYSU

3-4  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
COUGARS
100%
📊
PENGUINS
0%
COUGARS --
PENGUINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
126.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Youngstown State)
CougarsCHST (-3.5) 0 PenguinsYSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cougars Cover

0.8%

Penguins Cover

99.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around YSU -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (YSU)

CHST By 1-7 points

0.6%

CHST By 8-14 points

0.1%

YSU By 1-7 points

4.0%

YSU By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
51
CHICAGO STATE
75
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
Simulated Score
61
CHICAGO STATE
78
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Penguins Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Penguins Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Penguins (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim Penguins (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 126.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 28, 2025 CHST @ YSU 64 - 87
Nov 9, 2024 YSU @ CHST 80 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +198.0% more
Youngstown State: 3.0 vs Chicago State: 1.0
Rebounding (L5) +22.5% more
Youngstown State: 34.2 vs Chicago State: 27.9
Steals (L5) +21.4% more
Youngstown State: 9.0 vs Chicago State: 7.4
Turnovers (L5) +14.2% more
Youngstown State: 15.7 vs Chicago State: 13.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHST Score 51.0 64
YSU Score 75.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.1 / 30.4 41.0 / 31.0
Assists 10.7 / 9.5 23.0 / 7.0
Blocks 3.0 / 1.0 2.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 43.9 / 43.3 51.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 70.8 / 75.6 71.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 34.2 / 27.9 32.0 / 36.0
Steals 9.0 / 7.4 6.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 15.7 / 13.8 13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHST
7-25-0 (21.9%)
Margin: -10.3 ATS +/-: +0.4
YSU Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: -1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHST Advantage
15-15-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -10.3 ATS +/-: +0.4
YSU
10-18-1 (35.7%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: -1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CHST
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.5
YSU
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
YSU
CHST
YSU
CHST
ML
57% 17-13
75% 24-8
67% 20-10
73% 22-8
ATS
47% 14-16
69% 22-10
67% 20-10
73% 22-8
TTL
60% 18-12
44% 14-18
100% 30-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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