TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
10-10-3 | Road
2
WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
13-9-2 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Brandon Duhaime
#24 | Right Wing@
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Duhaime | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Logan Thompson | None-None | 2.00 | 0.909 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
2.00
--
Save %
0.909
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
CAPITALS
0%
MAPLE LEAFS
--
CAPITALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around WSH -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
TOR By 1 goal
0.9%
TOR By 2-3 goals
0.3%
WSH By 1 goal
6.6%
WSH By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
1
TORONTO
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Capitals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Capitals
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Capitals (-1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -4.0
D
Sim
Capitals (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 8, 2026
WSH @ TOR
4 - 0
Dec 18, 2025
TOR @ WSH
0 - 4
Nov 28, 2025
TOR @ WSH
2 - 4
Dec 28, 2024
WSH @ TOR
5 - 2
Dec 6, 2024
WSH @ TOR
3 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+35.6% more
Washington: 5.3
vs
Toronto: 3.9
Shots on Goal (L5)
+23.0% more
Washington: 32.2
vs
Toronto: 26.2
Blocked Shots (L5)
+22.1% more
Washington: 16.8
vs
Toronto: 13.7
Power Play % (L5)
+3.4%
Washington: 12.8%
vs
Toronto: 9.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
1.0
2
WSH Score
5.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
16.8 / 13.7
12.0 / 14.0
Faceoff %
47.5 / 58.4
40.7 / 59.3
Hits
17.8 / 22.7
17.0 / 28.0
Power Play %
1278.0 / 937.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
32.2 / 26.2
34.0 / 22.0
Takeaways
5.3 / 3.9
0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
TOR
WSH
TOR
ML
100%
3-0
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
ATS
100%
3-0
0%
0-4
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
TTL
33%
1-2
100%
4-0
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
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