TEXAS STATE
BOBCATSTXST
6-3 | Road
52
SEATTLE U
REDHAWKSSEA
5-1 | Home
66
AI Model Win Probability
BOBCATS
0%
REDHAWKS
100%
BOBCATS
--
REDHAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
TEXAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Texas State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TXST -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TXST)
TXST By 1-7 points
13.7%
TXST By 8-14 points
24.3%
SEA By 1-7 points
4.0%
SEA By 8-14 points
0.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas State
78
TEXAS STATE
Seattle U
62
SEATTLE U
Simulated Score
Texas State
68
TEXAS STATE
Seattle U
72
SEATTLE U
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bobcats
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Redhawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bobcats (-7.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim
Redhawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o137.5
Loss
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim
u137.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 28, 2025
TXST @ SEA
52 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+34.2% more
Texas State: 11.6
vs
Seattle U: 7.6
Rebounding (L5)
+26.7% more
Texas State: 42.8
vs
Seattle U: 31.4
Blocks (L5)
+70.3% more
Seattle U: 6.4
vs
Texas State: 3.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.8%
Seattle U: 43.9%
vs
Texas State: 37.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TXST Score
78.0
52
SEA Score
62.0
66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
43.9 / 37.1
35.0 / 18.0
Assists
15.0 / 15.8
17.0 / 10.0
Blocks
6.4 / 3.7
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
52.1 / 50.6
51.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
71.7 / 65.4
59.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
31.4 / 42.8
27.0 / 36.0
Steals
7.6 / 11.6
8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
14.0 / 14.2
9.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TXST
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
SEA
Advantage
21-14-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TXST
Advantage
14-15-1
(48.3%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
SEA
15-17-1
(46.9%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
TXST
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +2.0
SEA
13-20-0
O: 39.4% / U: 60.6%
Total +/-: -4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
TXST
SEA
TXST
ML
46%
16-19
42%
13-18
71%
24-10
83%
25-5
ATS
57%
20-15
48%
15-16
71%
24-10
84%
26-5
TTL
49%
17-18
65%
20-11
100%
34-0
100%
31-0
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