SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
12-5 | Road
139
DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
13-4 | Home
136
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
0%
NUGGETS
100%
SPURS
--
NUGGETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
221.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (San Antonio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SA -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)
SA By 1-7 points
1.4%
SA By 8-14 points
5.8%
DEN By 1-7 points
0.1%
DEN By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
125
SAN ANTONIO
Denver
96
DENVER
Simulated Score
San Antonio
107
SAN ANTONIO
Denver
118
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Spurs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nuggets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Spurs (-7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim
Nuggets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u239.0
Loss
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Sim
u239.0
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 12, 2026
DEN @ SA
128 - 118
Apr 4, 2026
SA @ DEN
134 - 136
Mar 12, 2026
DEN @ SA
136 - 131
Nov 28, 2025
SA @ DEN
139 - 136
Apr 2, 2025
SA @ DEN
113 - 106
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+39.8% more
San Antonio: 8.8
vs
Denver: 5.3
Blocks (L5)
+22.4% more
San Antonio: 4.7
vs
Denver: 3.6
Rebounding (L5)
+12.7% more
San Antonio: 49.1
vs
Denver: 42.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.9%
San Antonio: 83.0%
vs
Denver: 80.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
125.0
139
DEN Score
96.0
136
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
42.5 / 34.7
41.0 / 40.0
Assists
29.3 / 22.9
27.0 / 30.0
Blocks
3.6 / 4.7
5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
50.8 / 45.6
53.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
80.2 / 83.0
80.0 / 94.0
Rebounding
42.8 / 49.1
44.0 / 35.0
Steals
5.3 / 8.8
5.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
13.9 / 13.1
17.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
DEN
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
DEN
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
SA
DEN
SA
ML
54%
57-48
60%
111-73
55%
47-39
58%
61-44
ATS
63%
65-38-2
58%
107-76-1
55%
47-39
58%
61-44
TTL
54%
56-48-1
74%
134-47-3
100%
86-0
100%
105-0
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