Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / 49ers @ Redbirds CLT @ ILST

CHARLOTTE

49ERSCLT

3-3  |  Road

69
FINAL
Thu, Nov 27 • 1:30 PM ET
State Farm Field House
View Odds Details →

ILLINOIS STATE

REDBIRDSILST

4-2  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
49ERS
100%
📊
REDBIRDS
0%
49ERS --
REDBIRDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
121.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
ILLINOIS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Illinois State)
49ersCLT (-3.5) 0 RedbirdsILST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

49ers Cover

13.6%

Redbirds Cover

86.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ILST -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILST)

CLT By 1-7 points

9.3%

CLT By 8-14 points

2.7%

ILST By 1-7 points

21.6%

ILST By 8-14 points

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
55
CHARLOTTE
66
ILLINOIS STATE
Simulated Score
70
CHARLOTTE
75
ILLINOIS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Redbirds Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Redbirds Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Redbirds (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Redbirds (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 121.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 27, 2025 CLT @ ILST 69 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +14.9% more
Illinois State: 5.2 vs Charlotte: 4.5
Rebounding (L5) +14.7% more
Illinois State: 42.6 vs Charlotte: 37.1
Assists (L5) +10.0% more
Illinois State: 15.5 vs Charlotte: 14.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.9%
Illinois State: 39.5% vs Charlotte: 30.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLT Score 55.0 69
ILST Score 66.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.5 / 30.7 35.0 / 47.0
Assists 15.5 / 14.1 12.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.3 / 3.0 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 48.8 / 45.5 48.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 67.2 / 67.5 68.0 / 61.0
Rebounding 42.6 / 37.1 33.0 / 31.0
Steals 5.2 / 4.5 7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 8.3 / 12.0 7.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLT
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.1 ATS +/-: +0.8
ILST Advantage
23-13-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLT
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: -1.1 ATS +/-: +0.8
ILST Advantage
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
CLT
19-13-1
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6% Total +/-: +3.7
ILST
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILST
CLT
ILST
CLT
ML
42% 15-21
62% 21-13
71% 24-10
67% 22-11
ATS
58% 21-15
68% 23-11
71% 24-10
67% 22-11
TTL
58% 21-15
65% 22-12
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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