DUKE
BLUE DEVILSDUKE
8-0 | Road
80
ARKANSAS
RAZORBACKSARK
5-2 | Home
71
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE DEVILS
100%
RAZORBACKS
0%
BLUE DEVILS
--
RAZORBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
77.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ARKANSAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Arkansas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ARK -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARK)
DUKE By 1-7 points
24.3%
DUKE By 8-14 points
13.7%
ARK By 1-7 points
26.2%
ARK By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Duke
38
DUKE
Arkansas
39
ARKANSAS
Simulated Score
Duke
78
DUKE
Arkansas
72
ARKANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Razorbacks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Devils
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Razorbacks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Blue Devils (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 77.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 27, 2025
DUKE @ ARK
80 - 71
Nov 29, 2023
DUKE @ ARK
75 - 80
Mar 26, 2022
ARK @ DUKE
69 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+35.2% more
Arkansas: 5.9
vs
Duke: 4.4
Steals (L5)
+21.1% more
Arkansas: 8.7
vs
Duke: 7.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.9%
Arkansas: 80.8%
vs
Duke: 70.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.8%
Arkansas: 39.2%
vs
Duke: 36.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DUKE Score
38.0
80
ARK Score
39.0
71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.2 / 36.4
33.0 / 35.0
Assists
17.6 / 21.4
17.0 / 16.0
Blocks
5.9 / 4.4
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
52.6 / 55.5
41.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
80.8 / 70.8
82.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
38.0 / 42.5
29.0 / 37.0
Steals
8.7 / 7.2
8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
8.4 / 9.9
12.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DUKE
Advantage
35-3-0
(92.1%)
Margin: 18.0
ATS +/-: +1.6
ARK
28-9-0
(75.7%)
Margin: 9.2
ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DUKE
20-18-0
(52.6%)
Margin: 18.0
ATS +/-: +1.6
ARK
Advantage
23-14-0
(62.2%)
Margin: 9.2
ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
DUKE
14-24-0
O: 36.8% / U: 63.2%
Total +/-: -3.2
ARK
22-15-0
O: 59.5% / U: 40.5%
Total +/-: +8.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARK
DUKE
ARK
DUKE
ML
68%
25-12
71%
27-11
81%
25-6
73%
24-9
ATS
70%
26-11
79%
30-8
81%
25-6
73%
24-9
TTL
57%
21-16
47%
18-20
100%
31-0
100%
33-0
Contextual Game News
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