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JACKSONVILLE

JAGUARSJAX

7-4  |  Road

25
FINAL
Sun, Nov 30 • 1:00 PM ET
Nissan Stadium
View Odds Details →

TENNESSEE

TITANSTEN

1-10  |  Home

3
Key Game
Cam Little
KEY GAME

Cam Little

#39 | Place kicker
@
Jaylen Harrell
KEY GAME

Jaylen Harrell

#92 | Linebacker
Player
Cam Little None-None
Jaylen Harrell None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
0%
📊
TITANS
100%
JAGUARS --
TITANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
JACKSONVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Jacksonville)
JaguarsJAX (-3.5) 0 TitansTEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jaguars Cover

69.1%

Titans Cover

30.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around JAX -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JAX)

JAX By 1-6 points

16.5%

JAX By 7-13 points

19.3%

TEN By 1-6 points

12.9%

TEN By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
27
JACKSONVILLE
20
TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
20
JACKSONVILLE
27
TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Jaguars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Titans Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Jaguars (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Titans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o42.0 Loss
Proj Total: 47.0
D
Sim u42.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 4, 2026 TEN @ JAX 7 - 41
Nov 30, 2025 JAX @ TEN 25 - 3
Dec 29, 2024 TEN @ JAX 13 - 20
Dec 8, 2024 JAX @ TEN 10 - 6
Jan 7, 2024 JAX @ TEN 20 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +65.0% more
Jacksonville: 2.1 vs Tennessee: 0.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +47.4% more
Jacksonville: 135.8 vs Tennessee: 71.4
First Downs (L5) +28.0% more
Jacksonville: 21.9 vs Tennessee: 15.7
Total Yards (L5) +20.7% more
Jacksonville: 332.4 vs Tennessee: 263.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JAX Score 27.0 25
TEN Score 20.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.7 / 21.9 11.0 / 20.0
Net Passing Yards 192.4 / 196.7 121.0 / 202.0
Rushing Yards 71.4 / 135.8 67.0 / 70.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.17 / 0.23
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 263.7 / 332.4 188.0 / 272.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 2.1 2.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 4.4 / 5.2 3.4 / 4.8
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JAX Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
TEN
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JAX Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
TEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
JAX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -7.1
TEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEN
JAX
TEN
JAX
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
ATS
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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