Home / NFL Projections NFL / Raiders @ Chargers LV @ LAC

LAS VEGAS

RAIDERSLV

2-9  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sun, Nov 30 • 4:25 PM ET
SoFi Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

CHARGERSLAC

7-4  |  Home

31
Key Game
AJ Cole
KEY GAME

AJ Cole

#6 | Punter
@
JK Scott
KEY GAME

JK Scott

#16 | Punter
Player
AJ Cole None-None
JK Scott None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RAIDERS
100%
📊
CHARGERS
0%
RAIDERS --
CHARGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Los Angeles)
RaidersLV (-3.5) 0 ChargersLAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raiders Cover

23.8%

Chargers Cover

76.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around LAC -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAC)

LV By 1-6 points

10.7%

LV By 7-13 points

7.3%

LAC By 1-6 points

15.3%

LAC By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
17
LAS VEGAS
27
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
20
LAS VEGAS
27
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Chargers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Chargers Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Chargers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Chargers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 LV @ LAC 26 - 14
Nov 30, 2025 LV @ LAC 14 - 31
Sep 15, 2025 LAC @ LV 20 - 9
Jan 5, 2025 LAC @ LV 34 - 20
Sep 8, 2024 LV @ LAC 10 - 22
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +72.7% more
Los Angeles: 100.3 vs Las Vegas: 58.1
Total Yards (L5) +15.3% more
Los Angeles: 284.3 vs Las Vegas: 246.5
Yards Per Play (L5) +14.3% more
Los Angeles: 4.6 vs Las Vegas: 4.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.4 vs Las Vegas: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LV Score 17.0 14
LAC Score 27.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.9 / 16.7 22.0 / 12.0
Net Passing Yards 184.0 / 188.4 149.0 / 125.0
Rushing Yards 100.3 / 58.1 192.0 / 31.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.71 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.6 / 0.4
Total Yards 284.3 / 246.5 341.0 / 156.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.1 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 4.6 / 4.0 5.1 / 3.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LV Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
LAC
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LV Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
LAC
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
⚖️ Over/Under
LV
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
LAC
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAC
LV
LAC
LV
ML
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
0% 0-3-1
25% 1-3
TTL
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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