Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / River Hawks @ Skyhawks UML @ STO

UMASS LOWELL

RIVER HAWKSUML

2-6  |  Road

75
FINAL
Wed, Nov 26 • 12:00 PM ET
Merkert Gymnasium
View Odds Details →

STONEHILL

SKYHAWKSSTO

2-6  |  Home

64
AI Model Win Probability
RIVER HAWKS
0%
📊
SKYHAWKS
100%
RIVER HAWKS --
SKYHAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
114.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-34.0
UMASS LOWELL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +34.0 points (UMass Lowell)
River HawksUML (-3.5) 0 SkyhawksSTO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

River Hawks Cover

100.0%

Skyhawks Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UML -34.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UML)

UML By 1-7 points

0.4%

UML By 8-14 points

2.2%

STO By 1-7 points

0.0%

STO By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
74
UMASS LOWELL
40
STONEHILL
Simulated Score
67
UMASS LOWELL
78
STONEHILL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI River Hawks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Skyhawks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI River Hawks (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -34.0
D
Sim Skyhawks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 114.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 26, 2025 UML @ STO 75 - 64
Dec 18, 2024 STO @ UML 67 - 78
Nov 29, 2023 UML @ STO 80 - 74
Nov 27, 2022 STO @ UML 59 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +29.2% more
UMass Lowell: 4.9 vs Stonehill: 3.5
Assists (L5) +14.1% more
UMass Lowell: 14.3 vs Stonehill: 12.2
Free Throw % (L5) +6.8%
UMass Lowell: 68.9% vs Stonehill: 62.1%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.3%
UMass Lowell: 47.5% vs Stonehill: 44.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UML Score 74.0 75
STO Score 40.0 64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.3 / 28.5 35.0 / 27.0
Assists 12.2 / 14.3 11.0 / 13.0
Blocks 4.5 / 3.2 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 44.3 / 47.5 33.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 62.1 / 68.9 78.0 / 48.0
Rebounding 36.0 / 34.0 45.0 / 48.0
Steals 3.5 / 4.9 4.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 16.2 / 17.4 9.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UML Advantage
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -0.3
STO
12-21-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -2.2 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UML Advantage
16-14-0 (53.3%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -0.3
STO
14-15-2 (48.3%)
Margin: -2.2 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UML
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +1.2
STO
11-20-0
O: 35.5% / U: 64.5% Total +/-: -4.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STO
UML
STO
UML
ML
45% 15-18
70% 23-10
70% 23-10
58% 19-14
ATS
39% 13-20
70% 23-10
70% 23-10
58% 19-14
TTL
55% 18-15
58% 19-14
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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