MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
8-10 | Road
103
MIAMI
HEATMIA
12-6 | Home
106
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKS
0%
HEAT
100%
BUCKS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
215.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIL By 1-7 points
27.2%
MIL By 8-14 points
23.0%
MIA By 1-7 points
18.6%
MIA By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
110
MILWAUKEE
Miami
105
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
110
MILWAUKEE
Miami
115
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bucks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Heat (+10)
Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u236.0
Win
Proj Total: 215.0
D
Sim
u236.0
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 12, 2026
MIL @ MIA
105 - 112
Feb 24, 2026
MIA @ MIL
117 - 128
Nov 26, 2025
MIL @ MIA
103 - 106
Oct 6, 2025
MIL @ MIA
103 - 93
Apr 5, 2025
MIL @ MIA
121 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+10.5% more
Milwaukee: 14.7
vs
Miami: 13.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+10.4%
Milwaukee: 41.2%
vs
Miami: 30.8%
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.0%
Milwaukee: 76.6%
vs
Miami: 73.5%
Rebounding (L5)
+37.5% more
Miami: 52.1
vs
Milwaukee: 37.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
110.0
103
MIA Score
105.0
106
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.8 / 41.2
28.0 / 33.0
Assists
28.4 / 26.0
32.0 / 31.0
Blocks
5.1 / 4.5
7.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
46.2 / 47.1
46.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
73.5 / 76.6
90.0 / 64.0
Rebounding
52.1 / 37.9
47.0 / 47.0
Steals
8.4 / 8.5
9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
13.2 / 14.7
14.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
MIL
MIA
MIL
ML
48%
46-50
64%
61-35
59%
48-34
60%
49-32
ATS
51%
49-47
68%
65-31
59%
48-34
60%
49-32
TTL
59%
57-39
55%
53-43
100%
82-0
100%
81-0
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