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HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

11-4  |  Road

104
FINAL
Wed, Nov 26 • 10:00 PM ET
Chase Center
View Odds Details →

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

10-9  |  Home

100
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
📊
WARRIORS
100%
ROCKETS --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Houston)
RocketsHOU (-3.5) 0 WarriorsGS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockets Cover

93.3%

Warriors Cover

6.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOU -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-7 points

15.3%

HOU By 8-14 points

25.3%

GS By 1-7 points

4.8%

GS By 8-14 points

1.1%

AI Model Projected Score
125
HOUSTON
110
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
109
HOUSTON
118
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rockets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Warriors Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockets (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Warriors (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o225.0 Loss
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Sim u225.0 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 5, 2026 HOU @ GS 117 - 116
Mar 5, 2026 GS @ HOU 115 - 113
Nov 26, 2025 HOU @ GS 104 - 100
May 4, 2025 GS @ HOU 103 - 89
May 2, 2025 HOU @ GS 115 - 107
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.1%
Houston: 40.5% vs Golden State: 36.4%
Free Throw % (L5) +1.6%
Houston: 80.0% vs Golden State: 78.5%
Assists (L5) +22.7% more
Golden State: 29.2 vs Houston: 23.8
Blocks (L5) +20.6% more
Golden State: 4.6 vs Houston: 3.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 125.0 104
GS Score 110.0 100
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.4 / 40.5 28.0 / 28.0
Assists 29.2 / 23.8 25.0 / 24.0
Blocks 4.6 / 3.8 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.0 / 47.0 43.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 78.5 / 80.0 86.0 / 63.0
Rebounding 44.8 / 45.8 47.0 / 53.0
Steals 11.4 / 10.0 8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 15.0 / 14.7 16.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU Advantage
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
HOU
GS
HOU
ML
55% 95-79
61% 69-44
58% 49-35
59% 51-35
ATS
58% 101-73
62% 70-43
58% 49-35
59% 51-35
TTL
77% 134-40
51% 58-55
100% 84-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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