Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Sycamores @ Bulldogs INST @ LT

INDIANA STATE

SYCAMORESINST

4-3  |  Road

73
FINAL
Wed, Nov 26 • 7:30 PM ET
Thomas Assembly Center
View Odds Details →

LOUISIANA TECH

BULLDOGSLT

3-2  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
SYCAMORES
0%
📊
BULLDOGS
100%
SYCAMORES --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
INDIANA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Indiana State)
SycamoresINST (-3.5) 0 BulldogsLT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sycamores Cover

84.1%

Bulldogs Cover

15.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around INST -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (INST)

INST By 1-7 points

23.0%

INST By 8-14 points

27.2%

LT By 1-7 points

10.7%

LT By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
81
INDIANA STATE
71
LOUISIANA TECH
Simulated Score
71
INDIANA STATE
75
LOUISIANA TECH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Sycamores Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Sycamores (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o142.5 Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 26, 2025 INST @ LT 73 - 75
Nov 19, 2025 LT @ INST 51 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +44.1% more
Indiana State: 16.0 vs Louisiana Tech: 8.9
Free Throw % (L5) +21.4%
Indiana State: 80.4% vs Louisiana Tech: 58.9%
Turnovers (L5) +9.5% more
Indiana State: 13.7 vs Louisiana Tech: 12.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.2%
Indiana State: 28.4% vs Louisiana Tech: 24.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
INST Score 81.0 73
LT Score 71.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 24.2 / 28.4 20.0 / 27.0
Assists 8.9 / 16.0 13.0 / 14.0
Blocks 5.3 / 2.1 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 38.3 / 42.0 51.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 58.9 / 80.4 86.0 / 90.0
Rebounding 47.2 / 38.6 35.0 / 23.0
Steals 7.7 / 6.3 5.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 12.4 / 13.7 12.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
INST
11-21-0 (34.4%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: +0.5
LT Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
INST Advantage
17-12-1 (58.6%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: +0.5
LT
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
INST
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7% Total +/-: -3.9
LT
15-15-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LT
INST
LT
INST
ML
58% 19-14
66% 21-11
72% 23-9
53% 17-15
ATS
61% 20-13
62% 20-12
72% 23-9
53% 17-15
TTL
61% 20-13
53% 17-15
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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