WINNIPEG
JETSWPG
12-9-0 | Road
3
WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
12-9-2 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Dylan Samberg
#54 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Charlie Lindgren
#79 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Samberg | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Charlie Lindgren | None-None | 3.00 | 0.857 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
3.00
--
Save %
0.857
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
JETS
100%
CAPITALS
0%
JETS
--
CAPITALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around WSH -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
WPG By 1 goal
2.8%
WPG By 2-3 goals
1.2%
WSH By 1 goal
12.1%
WSH By 2-3 goals
37.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Winnipeg
1
WINNIPEG
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Winnipeg
2
WINNIPEG
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Capitals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Capitals
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Capitals (-1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -3.0
D
Sim
Capitals (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 13, 2025
WSH @ WPG
1 - 5
Nov 26, 2025
WPG @ WSH
3 - 4
Mar 25, 2025
WSH @ WPG
2 - 3
Feb 1, 2025
WPG @ WSH
5 - 4
Mar 24, 2024
WPG @ WSH
0 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+52.8% more
Washington: 5.5
vs
Winnipeg: 3.6
Hits (L5)
+21.7% more
Winnipeg: 21.2
vs
Washington: 16.6
Power Play % (L5)
+10.5%
Winnipeg: 29.7%
vs
Washington: 19.2%
Faceoff % (L5)
+7.7%
Winnipeg: 54.0%
vs
Washington: 46.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WPG Score
1.0
3
WSH Score
4.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.7 / 15.4
21.0 / 15.0
Faceoff %
46.2 / 54.0
50.0 / 50.0
Hits
16.6 / 21.2
20.0 / 12.0
Power Play %
19.2 / 29.7
0.0 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
30.8 / 29.1
35.0 / 21.0
Takeaways
5.5 / 3.6
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
WPG
WSH
WPG
ML
100%
3-0
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
ATS
100%
3-0
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
100%
4-0
TTL
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
Contextual Game News
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