SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
REDHAWKSSEMO
1-4 | Road
84
CAL POLY
MUSTANGSCP
3-3 | Home
68
AI Model Win Probability
REDHAWKS
100%
MUSTANGS
0%
REDHAWKS
--
MUSTANGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
CAL POLY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Cal Poly)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CP -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CP)
SEMO By 1-7 points
12.2%
SEMO By 8-14 points
4.0%
CP By 1-7 points
24.3%
CP By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Southeast Missouri State
74
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Cal Poly
83
CAL POLY
Simulated Score
Southeast Missouri State
68
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Cal Poly
72
CAL POLY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mustangs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mustangs
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mustangs (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Mustangs (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 25, 2025
SEMO @ CP
84 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+33.2% more
Cal Poly: 39.5
vs
Southeast Missouri State: 29.7
Turnovers (L5)
+22.0% more
Cal Poly: 16.2
vs
Southeast Missouri State: 13.3
Blocks (L5)
+11.5% more
Cal Poly: 2.5
vs
Southeast Missouri State: 2.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.5%
Cal Poly: 40.4%
vs
Southeast Missouri State: 31.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEMO Score
74.0
84
CP Score
83.0
68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.4 / 31.9
21.0 / 25.0
Assists
13.7 / 12.7
6.0 / 13.0
Blocks
2.5 / 2.3
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
45.5 / 47.2
30.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
70.3 / 63.1
84.0 / 88.0
Rebounding
39.5 / 29.7
41.0 / 39.0
Steals
6.7 / 6.7
7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
16.2 / 13.3
19.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEMO
Advantage
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
CP
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEMO
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
CP
Advantage
16-14-1
(53.3%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SEMO
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7%
Total +/-: -2.4
CP
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CP
SEMO
CP
SEMO
ML
58%
19-14
64%
21-12
58%
19-14
50%
15-15
ATS
64%
21-12
67%
22-11
58%
19-14
50%
15-15
TTL
61%
20-13
58%
19-14
100%
33-0
100%
30-0
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