Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tigers @ Bulldogs TNST @ UNCA

TENNESSEE STATE

TIGERSTNST

3-3  |  Road

75
FINAL
Tue, Nov 25 • 6:30 PM ET
Kimmel Arena
View Odds Details →

UNC ASHEVILLE

BULLDOGSUNCA

2-4  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
TIGERS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
123.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
UNC ASHEVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (UNC Asheville)
TigersTNST (-3.5) 0 BulldogsUNCA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

9.7%

Bulldogs Cover

90.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNCA -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNCA)

TNST By 1-7 points

6.8%

TNST By 8-14 points

1.7%

UNCA By 1-7 points

18.6%

UNCA By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
55
TENNESSEE STATE
68
UNC ASHEVILLE
Simulated Score
72
TENNESSEE STATE
75
UNC ASHEVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (-5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u164.5 Win
Proj Total: 123.0
D
Sim u164.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 25, 2025 TNST @ UNCA 75 - 73
Dec 1, 2024 UNCA @ TNST 92 - 74
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.8%
UNC Asheville: 38.4% vs Tennessee State: 29.6%
Field Goal % (L5) +7.7%
UNC Asheville: 48.9% vs Tennessee State: 41.2%
Steals (L5) +28.5% more
Tennessee State: 9.5 vs UNC Asheville: 6.8
Turnovers (L5) +26.6% more
Tennessee State: 16.7 vs UNC Asheville: 12.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TNST Score 55.0 75
UNCA Score 68.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.4 / 29.6 56.0 / 27.0
Assists 13.6 / 13.9 9.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.3 / 3.8 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 48.9 / 41.2 58.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 66.6 / 76.8 64.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 33.2 / 38.4 30.0 / 32.0
Steals 6.8 / 9.5 9.0 / 18.0
Turnovers 12.2 / 16.7 23.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TNST Advantage
23-10-0 (69.7%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +3.8
UNCA
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TNST Advantage
18-11-1 (62.1%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +3.8
UNCA
15-14-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
TNST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +2.3
UNCA
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: -2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNCA
TNST
UNCA
TNST
ML
53% 16-14
52% 16-15
63% 19-11
63% 17-10
ATS
57% 17-13
68% 21-10
63% 19-11
64% 18-10
TTL
60% 18-12
52% 16-15
100% 30-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Clemson's Brad Brownell Reveals New Identity, Injury Updates at …
si 1 day, 1 hour ago
Kansas Jayhawks Set Program Record with 706 Yards, Blank Middle …
si 5 days, 2 hours ago
Nick Saban Declares Georgia the Most Complete Team in College Fo…
si 5 days, 13 hours ago
LSU vs. McNeese: The Deep In-State Ties Behind Saturday's Rare S…
lsureveille 1 week ago
Memphis Basketball's Non-Conference Slate Ranked by Bart Torvik:…
yahoo 1 week, 2 days ago