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CHICAGO STATE

COUGARSCHST

0-6  |  Road

77
FINAL
Tue, Nov 25 • 7:00 PM ET
Memorial Coliseum (IN)
View Odds Details →

PURDUE FORT WAYNE

MASTODONSPFW

2-5  |  Home

90
AI Model Win Probability
COUGARS
100%
📊
MASTODONS
0%
COUGARS --
MASTODONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Purdue Fort Wayne)
CougarsCHST (-3.5) 0 MastodonsPFW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cougars Cover

42.1%

Mastodons Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PFW -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PFW)

CHST By 1-7 points

23.0%

CHST By 8-14 points

12.2%

PFW By 1-7 points

26.8%

PFW By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
76
CHICAGO STATE
78
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
Simulated Score
68
CHICAGO STATE
82
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mastodons Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mastodons Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mastodons (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Mastodons (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 25, 2025 CHST @ PFW 77 - 90
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +220.0% more
Purdue Fort Wayne: 3.2 vs Chicago State: 1.0
Steals (L5) +64.5% more
Purdue Fort Wayne: 10.9 vs Chicago State: 6.6
Assists (L5) +45.7% more
Purdue Fort Wayne: 14.2 vs Chicago State: 9.7
Rebounding (L5) +20.3% more
Purdue Fort Wayne: 31.8 vs Chicago State: 26.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHST Score 76.0 77
PFW Score 78.0 90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.5 / 26.6 52.0 / 38.0
Assists 14.2 / 9.7 18.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.2 / 1.0 5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 44.2 / 40.9 60.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 75.4 / 72.9 81.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 31.8 / 26.4 22.0 / 31.0
Steals 10.9 / 6.6 11.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 10.2 / 12.1 15.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHST
7-25-0 (21.9%)
Margin: -10.3 ATS +/-: +0.4
PFW Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHST Advantage
15-15-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -10.3 ATS +/-: +0.4
PFW
12-17-0 (41.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
CHST
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.5
PFW
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PFW
CHST
PFW
CHST
ML
59% 19-13
75% 24-8
74% 23-8
73% 22-8
ATS
62% 20-12
69% 22-10
74% 23-8
73% 22-8
TTL
59% 19-13
44% 14-18
100% 31-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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