Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Terriers @ Nittany Lions BU @ PSU

BOSTON UNIVERSITY

TERRIERSBU

3-3  |  Road

87
FINAL
Tue, Nov 25 • 7:00 PM ET
Bryce Jordan Center
View Odds Details →

PENN STATE

NITTANY LIONSPSU

5-1  |  Home

96
AI Model Win Probability
TERRIERS
100%
📊
NITTANY LIONS
0%
TERRIERS --
NITTANY LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
PENN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (Penn State)
TerriersBU (-3.5) 0 Nittany LionsPSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Terriers Cover

1.1%

Nittany Lions Cover

98.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PSU -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PSU)

BU By 1-7 points

0.8%

BU By 8-14 points

0.1%

PSU By 1-7 points

4.8%

PSU By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
64
BOSTON UNIVERSITY
87
PENN STATE
Simulated Score
62
BOSTON UNIVERSITY
75
PENN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nittany Lions Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nittany Lions Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nittany Lions (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Sim Nittany Lions (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o142.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 25, 2025 BU @ PSU 87 - 96
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +18.8% more
Penn State: 34.3 vs Boston University: 28.9
Free Throw % (L5) +9.2%
Penn State: 73.5% vs Boston University: 64.3%
Blocks (L5) +47.5% more
Boston University: 2.2 vs Penn State: 1.2
Turnovers (L5) +22.6% more
Boston University: 11.7 vs Penn State: 9.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BU Score 64.0 87
PSU Score 87.0 96
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.1 / 37.8 42.0 / 47.0
Assists 14.1 / 15.5 15.0 / 20.0
Blocks 1.2 / 2.2 1.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 46.3 / 49.6 58.0 / 57.0
Free Throw % 73.5 / 64.3 70.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 34.3 / 28.9 28.0 / 26.0
Steals 6.0 / 6.9 5.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 9.0 / 11.7 3.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BU Advantage
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: +0.2
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BU Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: +0.2
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
⚖️ Over/Under
BU
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +8.4
PSU
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PSU
BU
PSU
BU
ML
72% 23-9
68% 23-11
56% 18-14
62% 21-13
ATS
72% 23-9
62% 21-13
56% 18-14
62% 21-13
TTL
66% 21-11
65% 22-12
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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