CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
ROADRUNNERSCSUB
3-3 | Road
59
FLORIDA STATE
SEMINOLESFSU
4-1 | Home
89
AI Model Win Probability
ROADRUNNERS
100%
SEMINOLES
0%
ROADRUNNERS
--
SEMINOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
FLORIDA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Florida State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FSU -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FSU)
CSUB By 1-7 points
3.3%
CSUB By 8-14 points
0.6%
FSU By 1-7 points
12.2%
FSU By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Cal State Bakersfield
65
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
Florida State
82
FLORIDA STATE
Simulated Score
Cal State Bakersfield
62
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
Florida State
78
FLORIDA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Seminoles
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Seminoles
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Seminoles (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim
Seminoles (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 25, 2025
CSUB @ FSU
59 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+54.0% more
Florida State: 11.7
vs
Cal State Bakersfield: 7.6
Assists (L5)
+52.7% more
Florida State: 18.5
vs
Cal State Bakersfield: 12.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.5%
Florida State: 33.4%
vs
Cal State Bakersfield: 30.8%
Blocks (L5)
+28.7% more
Cal State Bakersfield: 5.4
vs
Florida State: 3.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CSUB Score
65.0
59
FSU Score
82.0
89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.4 / 30.8
25.0 / 10.0
Assists
18.5 / 12.1
16.0 / 11.0
Blocks
3.8 / 5.4
7.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
43.3 / 42.8
45.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
70.0 / 71.7
79.0 / 62.0
Rebounding
39.7 / 38.1
38.0 / 37.0
Steals
11.7 / 7.6
13.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
10.0 / 12.8
17.0 / 28.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CSUB
8-24-0
(25.0%)
Margin: -9.1
ATS +/-: -3.6
FSU
Advantage
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 2.4
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CSUB
11-18-1
(37.9%)
Margin: -9.1
ATS +/-: -3.6
FSU
Advantage
19-13-1
(59.4%)
Margin: 2.4
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
CSUB
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: +5.1
FSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: -2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FSU
CSUB
FSU
CSUB
ML
64%
21-12
55%
17-14
59%
19-13
71%
22-9
ATS
55%
18-15
61%
19-12
59%
19-13
71%
22-9
TTL
48%
16-17
58%
18-13
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
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