Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bonnies @ Tar Heels SBU @ UNC

ST. BONAVENTURE

BONNIESSBU

5-0  |  Road

70
FINAL
Tue, Nov 25 • 6:00 PM ET
Suncoast Credit Union Arena
View Odds Details →

NORTH CAROLINA

TAR HEELSUNC

5-0  |  Home

85
AI Model Win Probability
BONNIES
100%
📊
TAR HEELS
0%
BONNIES --
TAR HEELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (North Carolina)
BonniesSBU (-3.5) 0 Tar HeelsUNC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bonnies Cover

34.5%

Tar Heels Cover

65.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNC -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNC)

SBU By 1-7 points

20.1%

SBU By 8-14 points

9.3%

UNC By 1-7 points

27.4%

UNC By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
67
ST. BONAVENTURE
71
NORTH CAROLINA
Simulated Score
65
ST. BONAVENTURE
78
NORTH CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tar Heels Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tar Heels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tar Heels (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Tar Heels (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 25, 2025 SBU @ UNC 70 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +27.9% more
North Carolina: 6.8 vs St. Bonaventure: 5.4
Rebounding (L5) +24.6% more
North Carolina: 46.1 vs St. Bonaventure: 37.0
Steals (L5) +30.9% more
St. Bonaventure: 7.6 vs North Carolina: 5.3
Turnovers (L5) +10.2% more
St. Bonaventure: 12.7 vs North Carolina: 11.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SBU Score 67.0 70
UNC Score 71.0 85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.0 / 37.5 44.0 / 41.0
Assists 17.0 / 16.1 17.0 / 13.0
Blocks 6.8 / 5.4 1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 46.5 / 47.9 51.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 73.1 / 74.3 78.0 / 63.0
Rebounding 46.1 / 37.0 40.0 / 31.0
Steals 5.3 / 7.6 5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.4 / 12.7 13.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
1%TICKETS99%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
33%MONEY67%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SBU
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
UNC Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SBU
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
UNC Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SBU
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +5.1
UNC
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNC
SBU
UNC
SBU
ML
76% 25-8
59% 20-14
69% 22-10
61% 20-13
ATS
73% 24-9
50% 17-17
69% 22-10
61% 20-13
TTL
55% 18-15
38% 13-21
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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