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KANSAS STATE

WILDCATSKSU

5-2  |  Road

69
FINAL
Tue, Nov 25 • 8:00 PM ET
Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

HOOSIERSIU

6-0  |  Home

86
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
100%
📊
HOOSIERS
0%
WILDCATS --
HOOSIERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Indiana)
WildcatsKSU (-3.5) 0 HoosiersIU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wildcats Cover

13.6%

Hoosiers Cover

86.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IU -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IU)

KSU By 1-7 points

9.3%

KSU By 8-14 points

2.7%

IU By 1-7 points

21.6%

IU By 8-14 points

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
74
KANSAS STATE
85
INDIANA
Simulated Score
70
KANSAS STATE
74
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Hoosiers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hoosiers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Hoosiers (-10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Hoosiers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u164.5 Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim u164.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 25, 2025 KSU @ IU 69 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +28.0% more
Indiana: 3.9 vs Kansas State: 3.0
Rebounding (L5) +15.2% more
Indiana: 40.0 vs Kansas State: 34.7
Steals (L5) +14.7% more
Indiana: 6.5 vs Kansas State: 5.6
Turnovers (L5) +27.7% more
Kansas State: 12.1 vs Indiana: 8.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KSU Score 74.0 69
IU Score 85.0 86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.5 / 38.2 30.0 / 40.0
Assists 18.2 / 19.6 15.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.9 / 3.0 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.0 / 48.8 47.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 70.6 / 83.1 76.0 / 87.0
Rebounding 40.0 / 34.7 35.0 / 28.0
Steals 6.5 / 5.6 7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 8.8 / 12.1 17.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.9
IU Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.9
IU Advantage
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
KSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +0.1
IU
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IU
KSU
IU
KSU
ML
66% 21-11
59% 19-13
71% 22-9
69% 22-10
ATS
53% 17-15
62% 20-12
71% 22-9
69% 22-10
TTL
56% 18-14
47% 15-17
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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