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PHILADELPHIA

FLYERSPHI

11-6-3  |  Road

0
FINAL
Mon, Nov 24 • 7:00 PM ET
Benchmark International Arena
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

12-7-2  |  Home

3
Goaltending
Egor Zamula
GOALTENDER

Egor Zamula

#5 | D
@
Andrei Vasilevskiy
GOALTENDER

Andrei Vasilevskiy

#88 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Egor Zamula None-None -- -- --
Andrei Vasilevskiy None-None 0.00 1.000 1
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA 0.00
-- Save % 1.000
-- SO 1
AI Model Win Probability
FLYERS
0%
📊
LIGHTNING
100%
FLYERS --
LIGHTNING --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
FlyersPHI (-3.5) 0 LightningTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Flyers Cover

30.9%

Lightning Cover

69.1%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TB +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

PHI By 1 goal

19.7%

PHI By 2-3 goals

29.6%

TB By 1 goal

12.1%

TB By 2-3 goals

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
PHILADELPHIA
2
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
4
PHILADELPHIA
3
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Flyers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Flyers Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lightning (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Flyers (-0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 5, 2026 PHI @ TB 1 - 4
Jan 12, 2026 TB @ PHI 5 - 1
Jan 10, 2026 TB @ PHI 7 - 2
Nov 24, 2025 PHI @ TB 0 - 3
Mar 17, 2025 PHI @ TB 0 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +37.1% more
Philadelphia: 5.7 vs Tampa Bay: 3.6
Hits (L5) +17.6% more
Philadelphia: 24.0 vs Tampa Bay: 19.8
Blocked Shots (L5) +34.1% more
Tampa Bay: 16.6 vs Philadelphia: 12.4
Power Play % (L5) +19.8%
Tampa Bay: 23.7% vs Philadelphia: 3.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 3.0 0
TB Score 2.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 16.6 / 12.4 10.0 / 12.0
Faceoff % 47.3 / 46.1 47.7 / 52.3
Hits 19.8 / 24.0 20.0 / 22.0
Power Play % 2365.0 / 381.0 0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 25.5 / 26.9 18.0 / 20.0
Takeaways 3.6 / 5.7 7.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
PHI
TB
PHI
ML
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
ATS
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
TTL
75% 3-1
20% 1-4
100% 4-0
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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