Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Colorado @ Kansas St COLO @ KSU

COLORADO

COLORADOCOLO

3-8  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 12:00 PM ET
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS STATE

KANSAS STKSU

5-6  |  Home

24
Key Game
Damon Greaves
KEY GAME

Damon Greaves

#35 | Punter
@
Simon McClannan
KEY GAME

Simon McClannan

#8 | Punter
Player
Damon Greaves None-None
Simon McClannan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COLORADO
100%
📊
KANSAS ST
0%
COLORADO --
KANSAS ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
42.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-42.0
KANSAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +42.0 points (Kansas State)
ColoradoCOLO (-3.5) 0 Kansas StKSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Colorado Cover

0.1%

Kansas St Cover

99.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around KSU -42.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KSU)

COLO By 1-6 points

0.1%

COLO By 7-13 points

0.0%

KSU By 1-6 points

0.4%

KSU By 7-13 points

1.5%

AI Model Projected Score
0
COLORADO
42
KANSAS STATE
Simulated Score
24
COLORADO
31
KANSAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Kansas St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Kansas St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Kansas St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -42.0
C
Sim Kansas St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 42.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 COLO @ KSU 14 - 24
Oct 12, 2024 KSU @ COLO 31 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +130.9% more
Kansas State: 245.7 vs Colorado: 106.4
Total Yards (L5) +34.7% more
Kansas State: 415.1 vs Colorado: 308.2
First Downs (L5) +14.3% more
Kansas State: 17.5 vs Colorado: 15.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COLO Score 0.0 14
KSU Score 42.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.5 / 15.3 16.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 245.7 / 106.4 206.0 / 151.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.36 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 415.1 / 308.2 321.0 / 323.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.7 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COLO
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -6.8 ATS +/-: -8.2
KSU Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +4.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COLO
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -6.8 ATS +/-: -8.2
KSU Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +4.0
⚖️ Over/Under
COLO
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -8.7
KSU
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KSU
COLO
KSU
COLO
ML
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
ATS
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
TTL
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
0% 0-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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