Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / East Carolina @ FAU ECU @ FAU

EAST CAROLINA

EAST CAROLINAECU

7-4  |  Road

42
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 12:00 PM ET
Flagler Credit Union Stadium
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA ATLANTIC

FAUFAU

4-7  |  Home

3
Key Game
Tomas O'Halloran
KEY GAME

Tomas O'Halloran

#48 | Punter
@
Tyclean Luman
KEY GAME

Tyclean Luman

#15 | Defensive Back
Player
Tomas O'Halloran None-None
Tyclean Luman None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
EAST CAROLINA
0%
📊
FAU
100%
EAST CAROLINA --
FAU --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
82.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
EAST CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (East Carolina)
East CarolinaECU (-3.5) 0 FAUFAU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

East Carolina Cover

71.6%

FAU Cover

28.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ECU -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ECU)

ECU By 1-6 points

16.1%

ECU By 7-13 points

19.5%

FAU By 1-6 points

12.2%

FAU By 7-13 points

8.8%

AI Model Projected Score
45
EAST CAROLINA
37
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Simulated Score
24
EAST CAROLINA
28
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI East Carolina Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim FAU Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI East Carolina (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
C
Sim FAU (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 82.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 ECU @ FAU 42 - 3
Nov 7, 2024 FAU @ ECU 14 - 49
Nov 11, 2023 ECU @ FAU 22 - 7
Sep 5, 2013 FAU @ ECU 13 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +29.6% more
East Carolina: 181.5 vs Florida Atlantic: 127.8
Turnovers (L5) +34.1% more
Florida Atlantic: 2.3 vs East Carolina: 1.7
First Downs (L5) +29.5% more
Florida Atlantic: 28.6 vs East Carolina: 22.1
Total Yards (L5) +16.3% more
Florida Atlantic: 520.2 vs East Carolina: 447.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ECU Score 45.0 42
FAU Score 37.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 28.6 / 22.1 21.0 / 28.0
Rushing Yards 127.8 / 181.5 39.0 / 254.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.2 / 0.71
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.42 / 0.58
Total Yards 520.2 / 447.1 338.0 / 512.0
Turnovers 2.3 / 1.7 5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
92%TICKETS8%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ECU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -4.8
FAU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +4.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ECU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -4.8
FAU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +4.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ECU
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.5
FAU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FAU
ECU
FAU
ECU
ML
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
25% 1-3
ATS
20% 1-4
25% 1-3
20% 1-4
25% 1-3
TTL
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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