Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Ball State @ Miami OH BALL @ M-OH

BALL STATE

BALL STATEBALL

4-7  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 12:00 PM ET
Yager Stadium
View Odds Details →

MIAMI (OH)

MIAMI OHM-OH

6-5  |  Home

45
Key Game
Justin Thomas
KEY GAME

Justin Thomas

#9 | Linebacker
@
Kellan McLaughlin
KEY GAME

Kellan McLaughlin

#38 | Place kicker
Player
Justin Thomas None-None
Kellan McLaughlin None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BALL STATE
100%
📊
MIAMI OH
0%
BALL STATE --
MIAMI OH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
MIAMI (OH)
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Miami (OH))
Ball StateBALL (-3.5) 0 Miami OHM-OH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ball State Cover

41.5%

Miami OH Cover

58.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around M-OH -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (M-OH)

BALL By 1-6 points

15.3%

BALL By 7-13 points

12.9%

M-OH By 1-6 points

17.0%

M-OH By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
0
BALL STATE
3
MIAMI (OH)
Simulated Score
20
BALL STATE
27
MIAMI (OH)
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Miami OH Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Miami OH Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Miami OH (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Sim Miami OH (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 BALL @ M-OH 24 - 45
Nov 5, 2024 M-OH @ BALL 27 - 21
Nov 25, 2023 M-OH @ BALL 17 - 15
Nov 22, 2022 BALL @ M-OH 17 - 18
Oct 23, 2021 M-OH @ BALL 24 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +16.4% more
Miami (OH): 328.4 vs Ball State: 282.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +15.2% more
Miami (OH): 142.9 vs Ball State: 124.1
First Downs (L5) +10.5% more
Miami (OH): 17.0 vs Ball State: 15.4
Turnovers (L5) +44.8% more
Ball State: 1.8 vs Miami (OH): 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BALL Score 0.0 24
M-OH Score 3.0 45
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.0 / 15.4 23.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 142.9 / 124.1 232.0 / 103.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.42 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 328.4 / 282.2 458.0 / 280.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.8 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BALL
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -18.6 ATS +/-: -3.7
M-OH Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: -4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BALL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -18.6 ATS +/-: -3.7
M-OH Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: -4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
BALL
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +4.5
M-OH
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +8.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
M-OH
BALL
M-OH
BALL
ML
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
ATS
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
TTL
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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