Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Ohio State @ Michigan OSU @ MICH

OHIO STATE

OHIO STATEOSU

11-0  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 12:00 PM ET
Michigan Stadium
View Odds Details →

MICHIGAN

MICHIGANMICH

9-2  |  Home

9
Key Game
Joe McGuire
KEY GAME

Joe McGuire

#42 | Punter
@
Hudson Hollenbeck
KEY GAME

Hudson Hollenbeck

#90 | Punter
Player
Joe McGuire None-None
Hudson Hollenbeck None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OHIO STATE
0%
📊
MICHIGAN
100%
OHIO STATE --
MICHIGAN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
OHIO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Ohio State)
Ohio StateOSU (-3.5) 0 MichiganMICH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ohio State Cover

93.3%

Michigan Cover

6.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around OSU -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OSU)

OSU By 1-6 points

7.9%

OSU By 7-13 points

14.6%

MICH By 1-6 points

3.8%

MICH By 7-13 points

1.8%

AI Model Projected Score
31
OHIO STATE
10
MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
24
OHIO STATE
27
MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Ohio State Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Michigan Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Ohio State (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Sim Michigan (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 OSU @ MICH 27 - 9
Nov 30, 2024 MICH @ OSU 13 - 10
Nov 25, 2023 OSU @ MICH 24 - 30
Nov 26, 2022 MICH @ OSU 45 - 23
Nov 27, 2021 OSU @ MICH 27 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +101.0% more
Michigan: 1.7 vs Ohio State: 0.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +12.3% more
Michigan: 225.5 vs Ohio State: 200.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OSU Score 31.0 27
MICH Score 10.0 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.5 / 25.0 9.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 225.5 / 200.8 100.0 / 186.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.6 0.11 / 0.65
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.33 / 0.67
Total Yards 430.6 / 442.8 163.0 / 419.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 0.6 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
58%MONEY42%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OSU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 29.6 ATS +/-: +1.7
MICH
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -6.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OSU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 29.6 ATS +/-: +1.7
MICH
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -6.3
⚖️ Over/Under
OSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +1.9
MICH
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -5.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MICH
OSU
MICH
OSU
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
ATS
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
TTL
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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