UTEP
UTEPUTEP
2-9 | Road
31
DELAWARE
DELAWAREDEL
5-6 | Home
61
Key Game
KEY GAME
Carlos Arreola
#91 | Place kicker@
KEY GAME
Nasir Eatmon
#36 | Safety| Player | |
|---|---|
| Carlos Arreola | None-None |
| Nasir Eatmon | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UTEP
0%
DELAWARE
100%
UTEP
--
DELAWARE
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
65.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
UTEP
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (UTEP)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UTEP -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTEP)
UTEP By 1-6 points
14.7%
UTEP By 7-13 points
19.7%
DEL By 1-6 points
10.0%
DEL By 7-13 points
6.6%
AI Model Projected Score
UTEP
38
UTEP
Delaware
27
DELAWARE
Simulated Score
UTEP
23
UTEP
Delaware
27
DELAWARE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
UTEP
Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
Delaware
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
UTEP (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Sim
Delaware (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 65.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 29, 2025
UTEP @ DEL
31 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+48.6% more
UTEP: 162.9
vs
Delaware: 83.7
Turnovers (L5)
+98.1% more
Delaware: 2.1
vs
UTEP: 1.0
First Downs (L5)
+18.8% more
Delaware: 21.6
vs
UTEP: 18.2
Total Yards (L5)
+12.3% more
Delaware: 375.0
vs
UTEP: 334.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTEP Score
38.0
31
DEL Score
27.0
61
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
21.6 / 18.2
22.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards
83.7 / 162.9
216.0 / 26.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.3
0.17 / 0.31
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.4
0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards
375.0 / 334.0
527.0 / 370.0
Turnovers
2.1 / 1.0
1.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTEP
1-4-0
(20.0%)
Margin: -25.0
ATS +/-: -8.2
DEL
Advantage
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -4.2
ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTEP
1-4-0
(20.0%)
Margin: -25.0
ATS +/-: -8.2
DEL
Advantage
3-2-0
(60.0%)
Margin: -4.2
ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UTEP
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0%
Total +/-: +6.3
DEL
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0%
Total +/-: -7.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEL
UTEP
DEL
UTEP
ML
80%
4-1
100%
5-0
80%
4-1
80%
4-1
ATS
40%
2-3
0%
0-5
40%
2-3
0%
0-5
TTL
60%
3-2
100%
5-0
60%
3-2
60%
3-2
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