Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Georgia St @ Old Dominion GAST @ ODU

GEORGIA STATE

GEORGIA STGAST

1-10  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 2:00 PM ET
S.B. Ballard Stadium
View Odds Details →

OLD DOMINION

OLD DOMINIONODU

8-3  |  Home

27
Key Game
Joseph Holt
KEY GAME

Joseph Holt

#17 | Safety
@
Ian Brandt
KEY GAME

Ian Brandt

#96 | Punter
Player
Joseph Holt None-None
Ian Brandt None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
GEORGIA ST
100%
📊
OLD DOMINION
0%
GEORGIA ST --
OLD DOMINION --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-42.0
OLD DOMINION
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +42.0 points (Old Dominion)
Georgia StGAST (-3.5) 0 Old DominionODU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Georgia St Cover

0.1%

Old Dominion Cover

99.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ODU -42.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ODU)

GAST By 1-6 points

0.1%

GAST By 7-13 points

0.0%

ODU By 1-6 points

0.4%

ODU By 7-13 points

1.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3
GEORGIA STATE
45
OLD DOMINION
Simulated Score
24
GEORGIA STATE
28
OLD DOMINION
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Old Dominion Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Old Dominion Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Old Dominion (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -42.0
C
Sim Old Dominion (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 ODU @ GAST 10 - 42
Nov 29, 2025 GAST @ ODU 10 - 27
Oct 12, 2024 ODU @ GAST 21 - 14
Nov 25, 2023 GAST @ ODU 24 - 25
Oct 29, 2022 ODU @ GAST 17 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +88.3% more
Old Dominion: 277.7 vs Georgia State: 147.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
Old Dominion: 0.4 vs Georgia State: 0.3
Total Yards (L5) +9.0% more
Old Dominion: 483.6 vs Georgia State: 443.5
Turnovers (L5) +32.2% more
Georgia State: 1.7 vs Old Dominion: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GAST Score 3.0 10
ODU Score 45.0 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.4 / 22.9 27.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 277.7 / 147.5 303.0 / 129.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.47 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 483.6 / 443.5 409.0 / 283.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.7 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
8%MONEY92%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GAST Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 20.4 ATS +/-: +17.6
ODU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -12.6 ATS +/-: -16.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GAST Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 20.4 ATS +/-: +17.6
ODU
0-5-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -12.6 ATS +/-: -16.0
⚖️ Over/Under
GAST
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.9
ODU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ODU
GAST
ODU
GAST
ML
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
ATS
20% 1-4
0% 0-5
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
TTL
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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