Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Louisiana Tech @ Missouri St LT @ MOST

LOUISIANA TECH

LOUISIANA TECHLT

6-5  |  Road

42
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 2:00 PM ET
Robert W. Plaster Stadium
View Odds Details →

MISSOURI STATE

MISSOURI STMOST

7-4  |  Home

30
Key Game
Kaegan Kent
KEY GAME

Kaegan Kent

#38 | Place kicker
@
Caleb Olabode
KEY GAME

Caleb Olabode

#24 | Linebacker
Player
Kaegan Kent None-None
Caleb Olabode None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LOUISIANA TECH
0%
📊
MISSOURI ST
100%
LOUISIANA TECH --
MISSOURI ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
LOUISIANA TECH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Louisiana Tech)
Louisiana TechLT (-3.5) 0 Missouri StMOST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Louisiana Tech Cover

69.1%

Missouri St Cover

30.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around LT -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LT)

LT By 1-6 points

16.5%

LT By 7-13 points

19.3%

MOST By 1-6 points

12.9%

MOST By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
31
LOUISIANA TECH
24
MISSOURI STATE
Simulated Score
13
LOUISIANA TECH
34
MISSOURI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Louisiana Tech Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Missouri St Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Louisiana Tech (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Missouri St (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 LT @ MOST 42 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +36.7% more
Louisiana Tech: 216.7 vs Missouri State: 137.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Louisiana Tech: 0.5 vs Missouri State: 0.4
Total Yards (L5) +19.2% more
Missouri State: 436.3 vs Louisiana Tech: 366.2
First Downs (L5) +8.5% more
Missouri State: 23.1 vs Louisiana Tech: 21.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LT Score 31.0 42
MOST Score 24.0 30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.1 / 21.2 21.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 137.2 / 216.7 122.0 / 388.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.62
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 436.3 / 366.2 416.0 / 475.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.2 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
28%MONEY72%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LT Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +9.1
MOST
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: +6.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LT Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +9.1
MOST
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: +6.0
⚖️ Over/Under
LT
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +13.0
MOST
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MOST
LT
MOST
LT
ML
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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