Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UL Monroe @ Louisiana ULM @ UL

UL MONROE

UL MONROEULM

3-8  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 3:00 PM ET
Cajun Field
View Odds Details →

LOUISIANA

LOUISIANAUL

5-6  |  Home

30
Key Game
Makenzie Ryan
KEY GAME

Makenzie Ryan

#47 | Punter
@
Tony Sterner
KEY GAME

Tony Sterner

#95 | Place kicker
Player
Makenzie Ryan None-None
Tony Sterner None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UL MONROE
100%
📊
LOUISIANA
0%
UL MONROE --
LOUISIANA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
LOUISIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Louisiana)
UL MonroeULM (-3.5) 0 LouisianaUL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UL Monroe Cover

2.3%

Louisiana Cover

97.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UL -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UL)

ULM By 1-6 points

1.4%

ULM By 7-13 points

0.5%

UL By 1-6 points

3.8%

UL By 7-13 points

8.8%

AI Model Projected Score
10
UL MONROE
38
LOUISIANA
Simulated Score
17
UL MONROE
38
LOUISIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Louisiana Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Louisiana Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Louisiana (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Sim Louisiana (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 ULM @ UL 27 - 30
Nov 30, 2024 UL @ ULM 37 - 23
Nov 25, 2023 ULM @ UL 21 - 52
Sep 24, 2022 UL @ ULM 17 - 21
Nov 27, 2021 ULM @ UL 16 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +46.4% more
Louisiana: 187.1 vs UL Monroe: 127.8
Total Yards (L5) +34.2% more
Louisiana: 365.0 vs UL Monroe: 272.0
First Downs (L5) +27.8% more
Louisiana: 19.9 vs UL Monroe: 15.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +19.0% more
Louisiana: 0.5 vs UL Monroe: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ULM Score 10.0 27
UL Score 38.0 30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.9 / 15.6 17.0 / 29.0
Rushing Yards 187.1 / 127.8 212.0 / 205.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.38 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 365.0 / 272.0 338.0 / 516.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.2 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
37%MONEY63%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ULM
3-9-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -15.3 ATS +/-: -8.0
UL Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +7.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ULM
4-8-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -15.3 ATS +/-: -8.0
UL Advantage
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +7.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ULM
6-6-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
UL
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UL
ULM
UL
ULM
ML
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
ATS
75% 3-1-1
20% 1-4
50% 2-2-1
20% 1-4
TTL
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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