Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / South Alabama @ Texas St USA @ TXST

SOUTH ALABAMA

SOUTH ALABAMAUSA

4-7  |  Road

26
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 3:00 PM ET
UFCU Stadium
View Odds Details →

TEXAS STATE

TEXAS STTXST

5-6  |  Home

49
Key Game
Aleksi Pulkkinen
KEY GAME

Aleksi Pulkkinen

#40 | Punter
@
Cordarian Powell
KEY GAME

Cordarian Powell

#8 | Defensive Back
Player
Aleksi Pulkkinen None-None
Cordarian Powell None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SOUTH ALABAMA
0%
📊
TEXAS ST
100%
SOUTH ALABAMA --
TEXAS ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
SOUTH ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (South Alabama)
South AlabamaUSA (-3.5) 0 Texas StTXST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

South Alabama Cover

78.4%

Texas St Cover

21.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around USA -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USA)

USA By 1-6 points

14.7%

USA By 7-13 points

19.7%

TXST By 1-6 points

10.0%

TXST By 7-13 points

6.6%

AI Model Projected Score
34
SOUTH ALABAMA
23
TEXAS STATE
Simulated Score
24
SOUTH ALABAMA
31
TEXAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI South Alabama Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Texas St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI South Alabama (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Sim Texas St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 USA @ TXST 26 - 49
Nov 29, 2024 TXST @ USA 45 - 38
Nov 25, 2023 USA @ TXST 44 - 52
Nov 12, 2022 TXST @ USA 21 - 38
Oct 9, 2021 USA @ TXST 31 - 33
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +68.0% more
Texas State: 1.2 vs South Alabama: 0.5
Total Yards (L5) +13.9% more
Texas State: 455.7 vs South Alabama: 400.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USA Score 34.0 26
TXST Score 23.0 49
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.5 / 22.6 26.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 209.9 / 214.5 263.0 / 205.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 455.7 / 400.1 544.0 / 362.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 0.5 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +3.4
TXST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +3.4
TXST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
USA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +14.3
TXST
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TXST
USA
TXST
USA
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
ATS
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
TTL
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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