Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Missouri @ Arkansas MIZ @ ARK

MISSOURI

MISSOURIMIZ

7-4  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 3:30 PM ET
Razorback Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARKANSAS

ARKANSASARK

2-9  |  Home

17
Key Game
Oliver Robbins
KEY GAME

Oliver Robbins

#48 | Place kicker
@
Maddox Lassiter
KEY GAME

Maddox Lassiter

#47 | Tight End
Player
Oliver Robbins None-None
Maddox Lassiter None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MISSOURI
0%
📊
ARKANSAS
100%
MISSOURI --
ARKANSAS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
MISSOURI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Missouri)
MissouriMIZ (-3.5) 0 ArkansasARK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Missouri Cover

82.3%

Arkansas Cover

17.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MIZ -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIZ)

MIZ By 1-6 points

13.5%

MIZ By 7-13 points

19.3%

ARK By 1-6 points

8.6%

ARK By 7-13 points

5.3%

AI Model Projected Score
34
MISSOURI
21
ARKANSAS
Simulated Score
24
MISSOURI
27
ARKANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Missouri Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Arkansas Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Missouri (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
C
Sim Arkansas (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 MIZ @ ARK 31 - 17
Nov 30, 2024 ARK @ MIZ 21 - 28
Nov 24, 2023 MIZ @ ARK 48 - 14
Nov 25, 2022 ARK @ MIZ 27 - 29
Nov 26, 2021 MIZ @ ARK 17 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +22.9% more
Arkansas: 440.7 vs Missouri: 358.5
First Downs (L5) +17.9% more
Arkansas: 23.2 vs Missouri: 19.7
Turnovers (L5) +12.8% more
Arkansas: 2.0 vs Missouri: 1.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIZ Score 34.0 31
ARK Score 21.0 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.2 / 19.7 15.0 / 26.0
Rushing Yards 188.3 / 180.6 61.0 / 322.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.38 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 440.7 / 358.5 246.0 / 347.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 1.8 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIZ Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 17.6 ATS +/-: +2.2
ARK
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -8.6 ATS +/-: -8.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIZ Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 17.6 ATS +/-: +2.2
ARK
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -8.6 ATS +/-: -8.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MIZ
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +1.9
ARK
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARK
MIZ
ARK
MIZ
ML
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
TTL
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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