Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Wisconsin @ Minnesota WIS @ MINN

WISCONSIN

WISCONSINWIS

4-7  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 3:30 PM ET
Huntington Bank Stadium
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

MINNESOTAMINN

6-5  |  Home

17
Key Game
Dillan Johnson
KEY GAME

Dillan Johnson

#76 | Defensive Lineman
@
Anthony Smith
KEY GAME

Anthony Smith

#0 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Dillan Johnson None-None
Anthony Smith None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WISCONSIN
100%
📊
MINNESOTA
0%
WISCONSIN --
MINNESOTA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
21.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Minnesota)
WisconsinWIS (-3.5) 0 MinnesotaMINN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wisconsin Cover

30.9%

Minnesota Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MINN -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MINN)

WIS By 1-6 points

12.9%

WIS By 7-13 points

9.6%

MINN By 1-6 points

16.5%

MINN By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
7
WISCONSIN
14
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
20
WISCONSIN
24
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Minnesota Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Minnesota Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Minnesota (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Minnesota (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 21.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 WIS @ MINN 7 - 17
Nov 29, 2024 MINN @ WIS 24 - 7
Nov 25, 2023 WIS @ MINN 28 - 14
Nov 26, 2022 MINN @ WIS 23 - 16
Nov 27, 2021 WIS @ MINN 13 - 23
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +26.6% more
Minnesota: 15.1 vs Wisconsin: 11.9
Total Yards (L5) +17.2% more
Minnesota: 270.7 vs Wisconsin: 231.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +46.9% more
Wisconsin: 139.2 vs Minnesota: 73.9
Turnovers (L5) +46.0% more
Wisconsin: 0.9 vs Minnesota: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WIS Score 7.0 7
MINN Score 14.0 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.1 / 11.9 13.0 / 11.0
Rushing Yards 73.9 / 139.2 128.0 / 86.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.5 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 270.7 / 231.0 218.0 / 268.0
Turnovers 0.4 / 0.9 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
66%MONEY34%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
37%MONEY63%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WIS
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 15.0 ATS +/-: +6.2
MINN
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WIS
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 15.0 ATS +/-: +6.2
MINN Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
⚖️ Over/Under
WIS
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.3
MINN
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MINN
WIS
MINN
WIS
ML
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
ATS
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
TTL
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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