Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Oregon St @ Washington St ORST @ WSU

OREGON STATE

OREGON STORST

2-9  |  Road

8
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 6:30 PM ET
Martin Stadium
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON STATE

WASHINGTON STWSU

5-6  |  Home

32
Key Game
Luke Levengood
KEY GAME

Luke Levengood

#96 | Defensive Tackle
@
Jack Stevens
KEY GAME

Jack Stevens

#38 | Place kicker
Player
Luke Levengood None-None
Jack Stevens None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OREGON ST
100%
📊
WASHINGTON ST
0%
OREGON ST --
WASHINGTON ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
17.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
WASHINGTON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Washington State)
Oregon StORST (-3.5) 0 Washington StWSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Oregon St Cover

41.5%

Washington St Cover

58.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WSU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSU)

ORST By 1-6 points

15.3%

ORST By 7-13 points

12.9%

WSU By 1-6 points

17.0%

WSU By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
7
OREGON STATE
10
WASHINGTON STATE
Simulated Score
27
OREGON STATE
24
WASHINGTON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Washington St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Oregon St Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Washington St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Sim Oregon St (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 17.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 ORST @ WSU 8 - 32
Nov 1, 2025 WSU @ ORST 7 - 10
Nov 23, 2024 WSU @ ORST 38 - 41
Sep 23, 2023 ORST @ WSU 35 - 38
Oct 15, 2022 WSU @ ORST 10 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +14.4% more
Oregon State: 356.0 vs Washington State: 304.7
First Downs (L5) +9.4% more
Oregon State: 20.6 vs Washington State: 18.7
Turnovers (L5) +9.0% more
Oregon State: 1.2 vs Washington State: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ORST Score 7.0 8
WSU Score 10.0 32
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.7 / 20.6 22.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 135.9 / 142.4 186.0 / 40.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.43 / 0.21
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.6 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 304.7 / 356.0 383.0 / 280.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.2 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORST Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.4 ATS +/-: +15.7
WSU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORST Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 13.4 ATS +/-: +15.7
WSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ORST
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.1
WSU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSU
ORST
WSU
ORST
ML
80% 4-1
100% 4-0
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
ATS
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
TTL
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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