Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Maryland @ Michigan St MD @ MSU

MARYLAND

MARYLANDMD

4-7  |  Road

28
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 7:00 PM ET
Ford Field
View Odds Details →

MICHIGAN STATE

MICHIGAN STMSU

3-8  |  Home

38
Key Game
Bryce McFerson
KEY GAME

Bryce McFerson

#34 | Punter
@
Khalil Majeed
KEY GAME

Khalil Majeed

#34 | Safety
Player
Bryce McFerson None-None
Khalil Majeed None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MARYLAND
100%
📊
MICHIGAN ST
0%
MARYLAND --
MICHIGAN ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (Michigan State)
MarylandMD (-3.5) 0 Michigan StMSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Maryland Cover

1.3%

Michigan St Cover

98.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MSU -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSU)

MD By 1-6 points

0.9%

MD By 7-13 points

0.3%

MSU By 1-6 points

2.5%

MSU By 7-13 points

6.6%

AI Model Projected Score
7
MARYLAND
38
MICHIGAN STATE
Simulated Score
27
MARYLAND
24
MICHIGAN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Michigan St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Maryland Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Michigan St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
C
Sim Maryland (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 MD @ MSU 28 - 38
Sep 7, 2024 MSU @ MD 27 - 24
Sep 23, 2023 MD @ MSU 31 - 9
Oct 1, 2022 MSU @ MD 13 - 27
Nov 13, 2021 MD @ MSU 21 - 40
Key Model Drivers
Time of Possession (L5) +8.0% more
Michigan State: 0.5 vs Maryland: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +41.1% more
Maryland: 1.4 vs Michigan State: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MD Score 7.0 28
MSU Score 38.0 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.4 / 17.6 24.0 / 26.0
Rushing Yards 102.7 / 105.4 161.0 / 75.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.36 / 0.56
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 325.1 / 336.1 453.0 / 534.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.4 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
22%MONEY78%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MD
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-: -7.1
MSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MD
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-: -7.1
MSU Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
MD
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +6.5
MSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSU
MD
MSU
MD
ML
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
ATS
50% 2-2-1
0% 0-5
25% 1-3-1
0% 0-5
TTL
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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