Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Notre Dame @ Stanford ND @ STAN

NOTRE DAME

NOTRE DAMEND

9-2  |  Road

49
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 10:30 PM ET
Stanford Stadium
View Odds Details →

STANFORD

STANFORDSTAN

4-7  |  Home

20
Key Game
Erik Schmidt
KEY GAME

Erik Schmidt

#18 | Punter
@
Aidan Flintoft
KEY GAME

Aidan Flintoft

#37 | Punter
Player
Erik Schmidt None-None
Aidan Flintoft None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NOTRE DAME
0%
📊
STANFORD
100%
NOTRE DAME --
STANFORD --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.0
NOTRE DAME
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +35.0 points (Notre Dame)
Notre DameND (-3.5) 0 StanfordSTAN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Notre Dame Cover

99.4%

Stanford Cover

0.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ND -35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ND)

ND By 1-6 points

1.4%

ND By 7-13 points

4.1%

STAN By 1-6 points

0.4%

STAN By 7-13 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
42
NOTRE DAME
7
STANFORD
Simulated Score
31
NOTRE DAME
17
STANFORD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Notre Dame Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Notre Dame Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Notre Dame (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
C
Sim Notre Dame (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 49.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 ND @ STAN 49 - 20
Oct 12, 2024 STAN @ ND 7 - 49
Nov 25, 2023 ND @ STAN 56 - 23
Oct 15, 2022 STAN @ ND 16 - 14
Nov 27, 2021 ND @ STAN 45 - 14
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +65.5% more
Notre Dame: 244.1 vs Stanford: 84.1
Total Yards (L5) +31.2% more
Notre Dame: 428.4 vs Stanford: 294.9
First Downs (L5) +12.0% more
Notre Dame: 20.3 vs Stanford: 17.9
Turnovers (L5) +60.0% more
Stanford: 1.3 vs Notre Dame: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ND Score 42.0 49
STAN Score 7.0 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.9 / 20.3 16.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 84.1 / 244.1 86.0 / 187.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.42 / 0.61
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 294.9 / 428.4 312.0 / 524.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 0.7 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
94%TICKETS6%
76%MONEY24%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
75%MONEY25%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ND Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 29.4 ATS +/-: +0.9
STAN
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -20.8 ATS +/-: -11.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ND Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 29.4 ATS +/-: +0.9
STAN
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -20.8 ATS +/-: -11.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ND
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.1
STAN
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STAN
ND
STAN
ND
ML
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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