IOWA
IOWAIOWA
7-4 | Road
40
NEBRASKA
NEBRASKANEB
7-4 | Home
16
Key Game
KEY GAME
Preston Ries
#46 | Linebacker@
KEY GAME
Kyle Cunanan
#91 | Place kicker| Player | |
|---|---|
| Preston Ries | None-None |
| Kyle Cunanan | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
IOWA
0%
NEBRASKA
100%
IOWA
--
NEBRASKA
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
38.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
IOWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Iowa)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around IOWA -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IOWA)
IOWA By 1-6 points
15.3%
IOWA By 7-13 points
19.7%
NEB By 1-6 points
10.7%
NEB By 7-13 points
7.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Iowa
24
IOWA
Nebraska
14
NEBRASKA
Simulated Score
Iowa
13
IOWA
Nebraska
20
NEBRASKA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Iowa
Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
Nebraska
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Iowa (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Sim
Nebraska (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 38.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 33.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 28, 2025
IOWA @ NEB
40 - 16
Nov 29, 2024
NEB @ IOWA
10 - 13
Nov 24, 2023
IOWA @ NEB
13 - 10
Nov 25, 2022
NEB @ IOWA
24 - 17
Nov 26, 2021
IOWA @ NEB
28 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+59.4% more
Iowa: 1.4
vs
Nebraska: 0.6
Rushing Yards (L5)
+10.6% more
Iowa: 158.7
vs
Nebraska: 141.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5)
+20.0% more
Nebraska: 0.5
vs
Iowa: 0.3
First Downs (L5)
+15.1% more
Nebraska: 18.7
vs
Iowa: 16.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IOWA Score
24.0
40
NEB Score
14.0
16
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
18.7 / 16.2
14.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards
141.9 / 158.7
231.0 / 213.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.5 / 0.3
0.33 / 0.58
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards
325.9 / 296.4
300.0 / 379.0
Turnovers
0.6 / 1.4
1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IOWA
4-1-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 16.4
ATS +/-: +3.7
NEB
Advantage
5-0-0
(100.0%)
Margin: 29.4
ATS +/-: +8.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IOWA
3-2-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 16.4
ATS +/-: +3.7
NEB
Advantage
4-1-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 29.4
ATS +/-: +8.8
⚖️ Over/Under
IOWA
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0%
Total +/-: -2.7
NEB
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0%
Total +/-: +6.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NEB
IOWA
NEB
IOWA
ML
100%
5-0
80%
4-1
80%
4-1
80%
4-1
ATS
20%
1-4
60%
3-2
40%
2-3
40%
2-3
TTL
60%
3-2
20%
1-4
60%
3-2
0%
0-5
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