OHIO
OHIOOHIO
7-4 | Road
31
BUFFALO
BUFFALOBUFF
5-6 | Home
26
Key Game
KEY GAME
Magnus Haines
#42 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Mikey Crawford
#5 | Cornerback| Player | |
|---|---|
| Magnus Haines | None-None |
| Mikey Crawford | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OHIO
0%
BUFFALO
100%
OHIO
--
BUFFALO
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
40.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-34.0
OHIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +34.0 points (Ohio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around OHIO -34.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OHIO)
OHIO By 1-6 points
1.6%
OHIO By 7-13 points
4.7%
BUFF By 1-6 points
0.5%
BUFF By 7-13 points
0.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Ohio
37
OHIO
Buffalo
3
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
Ohio
27
OHIO
Buffalo
20
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Ohio
Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
Ohio
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Ohio (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -34.0
C
Sim
Ohio (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 40.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 28, 2025
OHIO @ BUFF
31 - 26
Oct 26, 2024
BUFF @ OHIO
16 - 47
Nov 7, 2023
OHIO @ BUFF
20 - 10
Nov 1, 2022
BUFF @ OHIO
24 - 45
Oct 16, 2021
OHIO @ BUFF
26 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+60.0% more
Ohio: 255.1
vs
Buffalo: 102.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5)
+10.0% more
Ohio: 0.4
vs
Buffalo: 0.3
Turnovers (L5)
+131.7% more
Buffalo: 2.9
vs
Ohio: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OHIO Score
37.0
31
BUFF Score
3.0
26
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
19.1 / 19.0
19.0 / 27.0
Rushing Yards
102.0 / 255.1
100.0 / 359.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.3 / 0.4
0.42 / 0.41
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.37 / 0.63
Total Yards
360.9 / 381.9
370.0 / 506.0
Turnovers
2.9 / 1.3
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OHIO
Advantage
3-2-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-: -1.4
BUFF
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -10.2
ATS +/-: -7.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OHIO
Advantage
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-: -1.4
BUFF
1-4-0
(20.0%)
Margin: -10.2
ATS +/-: -7.3
⚖️ Over/Under
OHIO
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0%
Total +/-: +3.7
BUFF
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0%
Total +/-: +3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUFF
OHIO
BUFF
OHIO
ML
100%
5-0
75%
3-1
100%
5-0
100%
5-0
ATS
20%
1-4
25%
1-3
80%
4-1
20%
1-4
TTL
60%
3-2
50%
2-2
80%
4-1
100%
5-0
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