Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Bowling Green @ UMass BGSU @ MASS

BOWLING GREEN

BOWLING GREENBGSU

3-8  |  Road

45
FINAL
Tue, Nov 25 • 4:30 PM ET
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
View Odds Details →

MASSACHUSETTS

UMASSMASS

0-11  |  Home

14
Key Game
Travis Kenner
KEY GAME

Travis Kenner

#12 | Place kicker
@
Derek Morris
KEY GAME

Derek Morris

#99 | Place kicker
Player
Travis Kenner None-None
Derek Morris None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BOWLING GREEN
0%
📊
UMASS
100%
BOWLING GREEN --
UMASS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.0
BOWLING GREEN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +35.0 points (Bowling Green)
Bowling GreenBGSU (-3.5) 0 UMassMASS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bowling Green Cover

99.4%

UMass Cover

0.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BGSU -35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BGSU)

BGSU By 1-6 points

1.4%

BGSU By 7-13 points

4.1%

MASS By 1-6 points

0.4%

MASS By 7-13 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
38
BOWLING GREEN
3
MASSACHUSETTS
Simulated Score
17
BOWLING GREEN
27
MASSACHUSETTS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Bowling Green Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim UMass Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Bowling Green (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
B
Sim UMass (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 25, 2025 BGSU @ MASS 45 - 14
Oct 10, 2015 MASS @ BGSU 38 - 62
Sep 27, 2014 BGSU @ MASS 47 - 42
Oct 5, 2013 MASS @ BGSU 7 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +28.0% more
Bowling Green: 138.1 vs Massachusetts: 99.4
Total Yards (L5) +14.8% more
Bowling Green: 277.7 vs Massachusetts: 236.5
Time of Possession (L5) +9.0% more
Bowling Green: 0.5 vs Massachusetts: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +26.1% more
Massachusetts: 1.9 vs Bowling Green: 1.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BGSU Score 38.0 45
MASS Score 3.0 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.4 / 15.5 16.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 99.4 / 138.1 69.0 / 278.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.46 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 236.5 / 277.7 292.0 / 406.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 1.5 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BGSU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -21.6 ATS +/-: -5.8
MASS Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +6.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BGSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -21.6 ATS +/-: -5.8
MASS Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +6.8
⚖️ Over/Under
BGSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -2.1
MASS
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MASS
BGSU
MASS
BGSU
ML
0% 0-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
ATS
33% 1-2
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
TTL
67% 2-1
100% 5-0
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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