Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bison @ Falcons BUCK @ BGSU

BUCKNELL

BISONBUCK

2-5  |  Road

66
FINAL
Mon, Nov 24 • 12:00 PM ET
Suncoast Credit Union Arena
View Odds Details →

BOWLING GREEN

FALCONSBGSU

4-2  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
BISON
0%
📊
FALCONS
100%
BISON --
FALCONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
125.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-33.0
BUCKNELL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +33.0 points (Bucknell)
BisonBUCK (-3.5) 0 FalconsBGSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bison Cover

100.0%

Falcons Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BUCK -33.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUCK)

BUCK By 1-7 points

0.5%

BUCK By 8-14 points

2.7%

BGSU By 1-7 points

0.0%

BGSU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
79
BUCKNELL
46
BOWLING GREEN
Simulated Score
65
BUCKNELL
72
BOWLING GREEN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bison Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Falcons Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bison (-7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -33.0
D
Sim Falcons (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 24, 2025 BUCK @ BGSU 66 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +23.8% more
Bucknell: 17.2 vs Bowling Green: 13.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.5%
Bucknell: 28.0% vs Bowling Green: 25.6%
Steals (L5) +74.2% more
Bowling Green: 12.8 vs Bucknell: 7.4
Blocks (L5) +67.0% more
Bowling Green: 3.5 vs Bucknell: 2.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUCK Score 79.0 66
BGSU Score 46.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 25.6 / 28.0 48.0 / 45.0
Assists 12.5 / 11.3 15.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.5 / 2.1 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.4 / 35.4 45.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 76.5 / 73.7 69.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 35.6 / 30.4 27.0 / 31.0
Steals 12.8 / 7.4 12.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 13.1 / 17.2 15.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUCK
10-23-0 (30.3%)
Margin: -8.9 ATS +/-: -3.9
BGSU Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUCK
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -8.9 ATS +/-: -3.9
BGSU Advantage
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
BUCK
13-20-0
O: 39.4% / U: 60.6% Total +/-: +1.3
BGSU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1% Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BGSU
BUCK
BGSU
BUCK
ML
66% 21-11
55% 18-15
56% 18-14
64% 21-12
ATS
72% 23-9
45% 15-18
56% 18-14
64% 21-12
TTL
53% 17-15
61% 20-13
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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