Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Highlanders @ Mustangs RAD @ SMU

RADFORD

HIGHLANDERSRAD

2-6  |  Road

72
FINAL
Mon, Nov 24 • 8:00 PM ET
Moody Coliseum (Dallas)
View Odds Details →

SMU

MUSTANGSSMU

7-0  |  Home

89
AI Model Win Probability
HIGHLANDERS
100%
📊
MUSTANGS
0%
HIGHLANDERS --
MUSTANGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
165.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
SMU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (SMU)
HighlandersRAD (-3.5) 0 MustangsSMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Highlanders Cover

13.6%

Mustangs Cover

86.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SMU -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMU)

RAD By 1-7 points

9.3%

RAD By 8-14 points

2.7%

SMU By 1-7 points

21.6%

SMU By 8-14 points

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
77
RADFORD
88
SMU
Simulated Score
63
RADFORD
78
SMU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mustangs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mustangs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mustangs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Mustangs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 165.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 24, 2025 RAD @ SMU 72 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +136.7% more
SMU: 23.0 vs Radford: 9.7
Steals (L5) +132.2% more
SMU: 15.0 vs Radford: 6.5
Blocks (L5) +73.7% more
SMU: 4.3 vs Radford: 2.5
Rebounding (L5) +16.6% more
SMU: 36.9 vs Radford: 31.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
RAD Score 77.0 72
SMU Score 88.0 89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.1 / 30.3 38.0 / 28.0
Assists 23.0 / 9.7 17.0 / 12.0
Blocks 4.3 / 2.5 6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 52.7 / 38.9 46.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 71.7 / 71.6 78.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 36.9 / 31.7 50.0 / 34.0
Steals 15.0 / 6.5 6.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 10.9 / 13.8 16.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RAD
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: -2.2
SMU Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RAD Advantage
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: -2.2
SMU
14-19-1 (42.4%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
RAD
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.9
SMU
21-12-1
O: 63.6% / U: 36.4% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMU
RAD
SMU
RAD
ML
59% 20-14
77% 23-7
73% 24-9
76% 22-7
ATS
62% 21-13
63% 19-11
73% 24-9
77% 23-7
TTL
56% 19-15
67% 20-10
100% 33-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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