UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
VAQUEROSRGV
2-3 | Road
73
ILLINOIS
FIGHTING ILLINIILL
5-1 | Home
87
AI Model Win Probability
VAQUEROS
100%
FIGHTING ILLINI
0%
VAQUEROS
--
FIGHTING ILLINI
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Illinois)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ILL -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILL)
RGV By 1-7 points
15.3%
RGV By 8-14 points
5.8%
ILL By 1-7 points
26.2%
ILL By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
UT Rio Grande Valley
70
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Illinois
77
ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
UT Rio Grande Valley
60
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Illinois
82
ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Fighting Illini
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Fighting Illini
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Fighting Illini (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Fighting Illini (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 24, 2025
RGV @ ILL
73 - 87
Nov 26, 2021
RGV @ ILL
85 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+154.4% more
Illinois: 6.6
vs
UT Rio Grande Valley: 2.6
Rebounding (L5)
+16.7% more
Illinois: 42.6
vs
UT Rio Grande Valley: 36.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.7%
Illinois: 50.8%
vs
UT Rio Grande Valley: 48.1%
Assists (L5)
+19.6% more
UT Rio Grande Valley: 17.8
vs
Illinois: 14.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
RGV Score
70.0
73
ILL Score
77.0
87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.7 / 37.3
27.0 / 42.0
Assists
14.3 / 17.8
17.0 / 10.0
Blocks
6.6 / 2.6
3.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
50.8 / 48.1
50.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
72.9 / 75.2
86.0 / 50.0
Rebounding
42.6 / 36.5
43.0 / 33.0
Steals
6.1 / 6.7
1.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
10.9 / 12.5
10.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RGV
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 6.4
ATS +/-: +4.1
ILL
Advantage
28-9-0
(75.7%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RGV
18-13-0
(58.1%)
Margin: 6.4
ATS +/-: +4.1
ILL
Advantage
22-15-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
RGV
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1%
Total +/-: -1.5
ILL
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5%
Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILL
RGV
ILL
RGV
ML
65%
24-13
53%
16-14
57%
20-15
54%
15-13
ATS
70%
26-11
53%
16-14
57%
20-15
54%
15-13
TTL
57%
21-16
60%
18-12
100%
35-0
100%
28-0
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