LIBERTY
FLAMESLIB
4-0 | Road
79
VERMONT
CATAMOUNTSUVM
4-1 | Home
73
AI Model Win Probability
FLAMES
100%
CATAMOUNTS
0%
FLAMES
--
CATAMOUNTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
84.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
VERMONT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Vermont)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UVM -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVM)
LIB By 1-7 points
5.8%
LIB By 8-14 points
1.4%
UVM By 1-7 points
16.9%
UVM By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Liberty
35
LIBERTY
Vermont
49
VERMONT
Simulated Score
Liberty
68
LIBERTY
Vermont
72
VERMONT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Catamounts
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Catamounts
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Catamounts (-8.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim
Catamounts (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u141.5
Loss
Proj Total: 84.0
D
Sim
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 24, 2025
LIB @ UVM
79 - 73
Nov 19, 2023
UVM @ LIB
61 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+45.5% more
Vermont: 11.7
vs
Liberty: 8.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.3%
Vermont: 78.9%
vs
Liberty: 73.6%
Steals (L5)
+19.0% more
Liberty: 6.2
vs
Vermont: 5.0
Assists (L5)
+9.7% more
Liberty: 20.0
vs
Vermont: 18.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LIB Score
35.0
79
UVM Score
49.0
73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
44.3 / 44.2
33.0 / 42.0
Assists
18.1 / 20.0
11.0 / 16.0
Blocks
3.5 / 3.6
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
51.4 / 55.6
48.0 / 56.0
Free Throw %
78.9 / 73.6
73.0 / 50.0
Rebounding
35.8 / 35.1
33.0 / 26.0
Steals
5.0 / 6.2
3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.7 / 8.1
11.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LIB
Advantage
26-8-0
(76.5%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
UVM
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LIB
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
UVM
Advantage
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
LIB
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9%
Total +/-: +4.2
UVM
16-16-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVM
LIB
UVM
LIB
ML
56%
19-15
50%
17-17
65%
22-12
53%
18-16
ATS
62%
21-13
62%
21-13
65%
22-12
53%
18-16
TTL
47%
16-18
41%
14-20
100%
34-0
100%
34-0
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