CAL POLY
MUSTANGSCP
3-4 | Road
87
NORTHERN ARIZONA
LUMBERJACKSNAU
3-2 | Home
93
AI Model Win Probability
MUSTANGS
0%
LUMBERJACKS
100%
MUSTANGS
--
LUMBERJACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
172.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
CAL POLY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Cal Poly)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CP -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CP)
CP By 1-7 points
13.7%
CP By 8-14 points
24.3%
NAU By 1-7 points
4.0%
NAU By 8-14 points
0.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Cal Poly
94
CAL POLY
Northern Arizona
78
NORTHERN ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Cal Poly
70
CAL POLY
Northern Arizona
74
NORTHERN ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mustangs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lumberjacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mustangs (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim
Lumberjacks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o164.5
Win
Proj Total: 172.0
D
Sim
u164.5
Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 24, 2025
CP @ NAU
87 - 93
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+38.0% more
Cal Poly: 16.3
vs
Northern Arizona: 10.1
Rebounding (L5)
+13.5% more
Cal Poly: 40.3
vs
Northern Arizona: 34.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.0%
Cal Poly: 42.6%
vs
Northern Arizona: 36.6%
Steals (L5)
+33.0% more
Northern Arizona: 9.5
vs
Cal Poly: 7.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CP Score
94.0
87
NAU Score
78.0
93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.6 / 42.6
41.0 / 36.0
Assists
14.2 / 13.0
14.0 / 15.0
Blocks
3.2 / 3.3
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
48.5 / 45.3
52.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
66.2 / 65.5
55.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
34.9 / 40.3
41.0 / 38.0
Steals
9.5 / 7.1
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
10.1 / 16.3
12.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CP
Advantage
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
NAU
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CP
Advantage
16-14-1
(53.3%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
NAU
14-15-0
(48.3%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
CP
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +0.8
NAU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NAU
CP
NAU
CP
ML
62%
20-12
58%
19-14
81%
26-6
58%
19-14
ATS
62%
20-12
64%
21-12
81%
26-6
58%
19-14
TTL
66%
21-11
61%
20-13
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
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