Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Chanticleers @ Redbirds CCU @ ILST

COASTAL CAROLINA

CHANTICLEERSCCU

3-2  |  Road

42
FINAL
Sun, Nov 23 • 5:00 PM ET
CEFCU Arena
View Odds Details →

ILLINOIS STATE

REDBIRDSILST

3-2  |  Home

94
AI Model Win Probability
CHANTICLEERS
0%
📊
REDBIRDS
100%
CHANTICLEERS --
REDBIRDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
168.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
COASTAL CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Coastal Carolina)
ChanticleersCCU (-3.5) 0 RedbirdsILST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chanticleers Cover

65.5%

Redbirds Cover

34.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CCU -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CCU)

CCU By 1-7 points

27.4%

CCU By 8-14 points

21.6%

ILST By 1-7 points

20.1%

ILST By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
86
COASTAL CAROLINA
82
ILLINOIS STATE
Simulated Score
68
COASTAL CAROLINA
72
ILLINOIS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Chanticleers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Redbirds Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Chanticleers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Redbirds (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 168.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 23, 2025 CCU @ ILST 42 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +12.5% more
Coastal Carolina: 10.8 vs Illinois State: 9.5
Free Throw % (L5) +2.9%
Coastal Carolina: 65.2% vs Illinois State: 62.4%
Blocks (L5) +21.2% more
Illinois State: 2.9 vs Coastal Carolina: 2.4
Field Goal % (L5) +5.4%
Illinois State: 49.2% vs Coastal Carolina: 43.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CCU Score 86.0 42
ILST Score 82.0 94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.8 / 37.4 45.0 / 11.0
Assists 13.7 / 13.7 19.0 / 4.0
Blocks 2.9 / 2.4 1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 49.2 / 43.8 48.0 / 27.0
Free Throw % 62.4 / 65.2 77.0 / 60.0
Rebounding 39.8 / 42.4 48.0 / 34.0
Steals 4.8 / 4.4 6.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 9.5 / 10.8 6.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CCU
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +0.4
ILST Advantage
23-13-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CCU Advantage
18-12-1 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +0.4
ILST
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
CCU
17-13-1
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: -0.6
ILST
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILST
CCU
ILST
CCU
ML
42% 15-21
41% 13-19
71% 24-10
55% 17-14
ATS
58% 21-15
38% 12-20
71% 24-10
55% 17-14
TTL
58% 21-15
75% 24-8
100% 34-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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