Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Fighting Hawks @ Leathernecks UND @ WIU

NORTH DAKOTA

FIGHTING HAWKSUND

3-5  |  Road

78
FINAL
Sun, Nov 23 • 7:00 PM ET
Western Hall
View Odds Details →

WESTERN ILLINOIS

LEATHERNECKSWIU

1-6  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
FIGHTING HAWKS
0%
📊
LEATHERNECKS
100%
FIGHTING HAWKS --
LEATHERNECKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
187.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
NORTH DAKOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (North Dakota)
Fighting HawksUND (-3.5) 0 LeathernecksWIU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Fighting Hawks Cover

61.8%

Leathernecks Cover

38.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UND -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UND)

UND By 1-7 points

27.2%

UND By 8-14 points

20.1%

WIU By 1-7 points

21.6%

WIU By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
95
NORTH DAKOTA
92
WESTERN ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
68
NORTH DAKOTA
72
WESTERN ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Fighting Hawks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Leathernecks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Fighting Hawks (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Leathernecks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 187.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 13, 2025 WIU @ UND 69 - 66
Nov 23, 2025 UND @ WIU 78 - 69
Feb 23, 2023 WIU @ UND 81 - 70
Jan 23, 2023 UND @ WIU 80 - 92
Feb 12, 2022 UND @ WIU 68 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +46.6% more
North Dakota: 9.0 vs Western Illinois: 4.8
Assists (L5) +34.8% more
North Dakota: 9.8 vs Western Illinois: 6.4
Rebounding (L5) +9.9% more
North Dakota: 37.5 vs Western Illinois: 33.8
Blocks (L5) +85.4% more
Western Illinois: 2.5 vs North Dakota: 1.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UND Score 95.0 78
WIU Score 92.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.8 / 29.1 48.0 / 44.0
Assists 6.4 / 9.8 10.0 / 9.0
Blocks 2.5 / 1.4 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 42.0 / 39.1 45.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 69.2 / 66.8 52.0 / 85.0
Rebounding 33.8 / 37.5 31.0 / 29.0
Steals 4.8 / 9.0 7.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 11.7 / 10.3 17.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UND Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
WIU
5-26-0 (16.1%)
Margin: -11.9 ATS +/-: -5.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UND Advantage
21-11-0 (65.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
WIU
11-17-0 (39.3%)
Margin: -11.9 ATS +/-: -5.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UND
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +1.3
WIU
13-15-0
O: 46.4% / U: 53.6% Total +/-: -0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WIU
UND
WIU
UND
ML
45% 14-17
44% 15-19
61% 19-12
50% 17-17
ATS
52% 16-15
50% 17-17
61% 19-12
50% 17-17
TTL
45% 14-17
65% 22-12
100% 31-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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