Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Mercer @ Auburn MER @ AUB

MERCER

MERCERMER

9-1  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 2:00 PM ET
Jordan-Hare Stadium
View Odds Details →

AUBURN

AUBURNAUB

4-6  |  Home

62
Key Game
Kobe McInnis
KEY GAME

Kobe McInnis

#15 | Defensive End
@
Hudson Kaak
KEY GAME

Hudson Kaak

#14 | Punter
Player
Kobe McInnis None-None
Hudson Kaak None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MERCER
100%
📊
AUBURN
0%
MERCER --
AUBURN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
AUBURN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (Auburn)
MercerMER (-3.5) 0 AuburnAUB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mercer Cover

1.3%

Auburn Cover

98.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around AUB -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AUB)

MER By 1-6 points

0.9%

MER By 7-13 points

0.3%

AUB By 1-6 points

2.5%

AUB By 7-13 points

6.6%

AI Model Projected Score
7
MERCER
38
AUBURN
Simulated Score
10
MERCER
45
AUBURN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Auburn Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Auburn Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Auburn (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
C
Sim Auburn (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 MER @ AUB 17 - 62
Sep 3, 2022 MER @ AUB 16 - 42
Sep 16, 2017 MER @ AUB 10 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +128.5% more
Auburn: 170.5 vs Mercer: 74.6
First Downs (L5) +85.4% more
Auburn: 23.7 vs Mercer: 12.8
Total Yards (L5) +73.7% more
Auburn: 391.2 vs Mercer: 225.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
Auburn: 0.4 vs Mercer: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MER Score 7.0 17
AUB Score 38.0 62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.7 / 12.8 21.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 170.5 / 74.6 277.0 / 115.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.64 / 0.42
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.38 / 0.62
Total Yards 391.2 / 225.2 547.0 / 338.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 2.3 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MER
--
AUB Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MER
--
AUB Advantage
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
MER
--
AUB
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AUB
MER
AUB
MER
ML
60% 3-2
100% 2-0
60% 3-2
100% 2-0
ATS
40% 2-3
100% 2-0
60% 3-2
100% 2-0
TTL
40% 2-3
100% 2-0
0% 0-5
100% 2-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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