Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Crimson @ Terriers HARV @ BU

HARVARD

CRIMSONHARV

4-3  |  Road

74
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 1:30 PM ET
Mohegan Sun Arena
View Odds Details →

BOSTON UNIVERSITY

TERRIERSBU

3-3  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
CRIMSON
100%
📊
TERRIERS
0%
CRIMSON --
TERRIERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
130.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
BOSTON UNIVERSITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Boston University)
CrimsonHARV (-3.5) 0 TerriersBU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Crimson Cover

15.9%

Terriers Cover

84.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BU -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BU)

HARV By 1-7 points

10.7%

HARV By 8-14 points

3.3%

BU By 1-7 points

23.0%

BU By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
60
HARVARD
70
BOSTON UNIVERSITY
Simulated Score
70
HARVARD
75
BOSTON UNIVERSITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Terriers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Terriers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Terriers (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Terriers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u137.5 Loss
Proj Total: 130.0
D
Sim u137.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 HARV @ BU 74 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +23.2% more
Harvard: 13.0 vs Boston University: 10.0
Free Throw % (L5) +15.2%
Harvard: 86.7% vs Boston University: 71.5%
Steals (L5) +15.1% more
Harvard: 6.9 vs Boston University: 5.8
Assists (L5) +12.3% more
Harvard: 15.1 vs Boston University: 13.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HARV Score 60.0 74
BU Score 70.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.7 / 39.5 52.0 / 39.0
Assists 13.2 / 15.1 20.0 / 21.0
Blocks 2.8 / 3.0 1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 42.9 / 46.6 63.0 / 55.0
Free Throw % 71.5 / 86.7 50.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 32.3 / 30.6 22.0 / 18.0
Steals 5.8 / 6.9 9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 10.0 / 13.0 15.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HARV Advantage
17-12-0 (58.6%)
Margin: 3.4 ATS +/-: +2.6
BU
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HARV
12-13-1 (48.0%)
Margin: 3.4 ATS +/-: +2.6
BU Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
HARV
9-17-0
O: 34.6% / U: 65.4% Total +/-: -4.3
BU
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +8.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BU
HARV
BU
HARV
ML
68% 23-11
45% 13-16
62% 21-13
52% 15-14
ATS
62% 21-13
45% 13-16
62% 21-13
52% 15-14
TTL
65% 22-12
41% 12-17
100% 34-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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