TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
9-9-3 | Road
2
MONTREAL
CANADIENSMTL
10-7-3 | Home
5
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Troy Stecher
#28 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Jakub Dobes
#75 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Stecher | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Jakub Dobes | None-None | 2.06 | 0.923 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
2.06
--
Save %
0.923
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
CANADIENS
0%
MAPLE LEAFS
--
CANADIENS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MONTREAL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Montreal)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around MTL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTL)
TOR By 1 goal
12.1%
TOR By 2-3 goals
9.3%
MTL By 1 goal
19.7%
MTL By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Montreal
4
MONTREAL
Simulated Score
Toronto
2
TORONTO
Montreal
4
MONTREAL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Canadiens
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Canadiens
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Canadiens (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Canadiens (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 29, 2026
MTL @ TOR
3 - 2
Mar 10, 2026
TOR @ MTL
1 - 3
Dec 6, 2025
MTL @ TOR
2 - 1
Nov 22, 2025
TOR @ MTL
2 - 5
Oct 8, 2025
MTL @ TOR
2 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+10.1% more
Montreal: 15.6
vs
Toronto: 14.2
Power Play % (L5)
+9.5%
Montreal: 13.9%
vs
Toronto: 4.4%
Hits (L5)
+14.8% more
Toronto: 25.4
vs
Montreal: 21.6
Faceoff % (L5)
+9.1%
Toronto: 60.6%
vs
Montreal: 51.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
3.0
2
MTL Score
4.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.6 / 14.2
17.0 / 14.0
Faceoff %
51.4 / 60.6
47.1 / 52.9
Hits
21.6 / 25.4
25.0 / 20.0
Power Play %
13.9 / 4.4
0.0 / 33.3
Shots on Goal
27.4 / 27.9
29.0 / 26.0
Takeaways
4.1 / 3.8
8.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTL
TOR
MTL
TOR
ML
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
ATS
67%
2-1
0%
0-4
100%
3-0
75%
3-1
TTL
33%
1-2
100%
4-0
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
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