Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Stags @ Dolphins FAIR @ LEM

FAIRFIELD

STAGSFAIR

3-2  |  Road

97
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 1:00 PM ET
Ted Grant Court
View Odds Details →

LE MOYNE

DOLPHINSLEM

2-3  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
STAGS
100%
📊
DOLPHINS
0%
STAGS --
DOLPHINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
LE MOYNE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (Le Moyne)
StagsFAIR (-3.5) 0 DolphinsLEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Stags Cover

0.2%

Dolphins Cover

99.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LEM -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LEM)

FAIR By 1-7 points

0.1%

FAIR By 8-14 points

0.0%

LEM By 1-7 points

1.4%

LEM By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
62
FAIRFIELD
91
LE MOYNE
Simulated Score
68
FAIRFIELD
72
LE MOYNE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dolphins Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dolphins Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dolphins (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim Dolphins (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 FAIR @ LEM 97 - 83
Dec 30, 2023 LEM @ FAIR 72 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +48.3% more
Le Moyne: 14.4 vs Fairfield: 9.7
Assists (L5) +41.9% more
Le Moyne: 15.5 vs Fairfield: 10.9
Free Throw % (L5) +7.9%
Le Moyne: 77.9% vs Fairfield: 70.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.6%
Le Moyne: 36.3% vs Fairfield: 30.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FAIR Score 62.0 97
LEM Score 91.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.3 / 30.6 48.0 / 39.0
Assists 15.5 / 10.9 18.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.1 / 3.9 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 44.9 / 40.5 47.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 77.9 / 70.0 67.0 / 87.0
Rebounding 33.4 / 39.1 34.0 / 35.0
Steals 5.9 / 6.8 2.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 14.4 / 9.7 15.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FAIR Advantage
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
LEM
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FAIR
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
LEM Advantage
16-15-0 (51.6%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
FAIR
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -0.2
LEM
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LEM
FAIR
LEM
FAIR
ML
68% 21-10
55% 18-15
68% 21-10
61% 20-13
ATS
65% 20-11
48% 16-17
69% 22-10
61% 20-13
TTL
42% 13-18
48% 16-17
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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